Early Speed on the Trail
Recently early speed has been an asset on the Kentucky Derby Trail. We saw wire-to-wire winners in the Gun Runner Stakes, Smarty Jones, Sham, and Jerome.
Three of the four races were determined when jockeys were prominent and focused on establishing the lead. Victory Formation, Reincarnate, and Jace’s Road benefitted from aggressive rides allowing them to defeat the other speed and take advantage of the race dynamics.
Reincarnate did receive some light pressure on the front end by Spun Intended, and at that time, Reincarnate with Mike Smith, who was on a mission to maintain the advantage. This strategy may have been in place with trainer Bob Baffert having multiple horses in the Sham stakes, and the primary focus may have been to make sure Spun Intended on the stretch out did not obtain a comfortable lead.
Jace’s Road took the early lead in the Gun Runner Stakes. They set up shop at the rail and put the field away, going into the turn. No stretch runners made up any ground late.
Victory Formation was a prohibitive favorite at 3/5 odds in the Smarty Jones, and Flavien Prat aggressively rode him to the lead from the outside (8) post. Prat confidently rode him into a widening lead into the turn, and he was not threatened down the lane, with horses near the pace running second and third, and the race shape favored the horses near the lead. This race fell apart and no one made up any ground late in the race.
In the Jerome Stakes, Andiamo A Firenze briefly broke on top, and then he was allowed to rate early. Lugan Knight took advantage of the inside post inside the different speed of Arctic Arrogance and opened up a brief lead down the backstretch. Arctic Arrogance, to his credit, was able to go shoulder to shoulder by his side, and this was a slugfest down the lane with Lugan Knight picking up the win, Arctic Arrogance second and seven lengths back to the third-place finisher.
Running on the lead in stakes races combines class and speed. We see many wire-to-wire maiden winners who need to show that speed when stepping up in higher-class races.
We will continue to monitor this early speed advantage. While the winners have been wire to wire, no real closers have been picking up ground which may be the result of fractions and race flow not being that fast. The higher-class races will likely result in a more contested half-mile bit.
Pasco
Tampa Bay kicked off the three-year-old stakes series with the Pasco Stakes at 7 furlongs. Champions Dream was the favorite, with handicappers leaning on his class and stakes win in the Nashua Stakes in his most recent outing.
Zydeceaux was sent off on 9/1 and was able to take the lead from the outside post position and establish a place in the opening quarter. Opening up entering the stretch, he could hold off Champions Dream, who made a mild bid down the lane.
Champions Dream looked ready to engage Zydeceaux inside the 1/16th pole, but he found another gear and drifted out slightly, getting the victory at 9/1.
Zydeceaux has a small frame and had a trip over the track, and that may have made the difference as a few horses started to back-pedal going into the turn. Champions Dream is probably the better of these two as the distances get longer.
We could see both horses in the Sam F Davis. The Same F Davis scheduled for February 11 and Tampa Bay Derby on March 11 will continue the prep season in Oldsmar. Traditionally Todd Pletcher has shipped in a horse for the Sam F Davis and Tampa Bay Derby from his Gulfstream Park division.
Oldsmar
Tampa Bay was the focus on Friday; four prospects entered an allowance NW2.
Point Proven – Picked up a victory at Churchill Downs in his third-lifetime start. Son of Gun Runner has strong stamina and influences both sides of the pedigree. Classic Catch: Improved his Brisnet speed figure by 18 points when winning at Aqueduct in November. Prairie Hawk: Saffie Joseph saddled this winner at Tampa on December 2. His speed figure improved by eleven points in his second career start. I expect one or both back for the Sam F Davis and could improve noticeably in that spot with more pace and a larger field of horses.
Groveland: Continued the winning ways for Godolphin winning a stretch battle to break his maiden on Christmas Eve.
West Coast Cowboy and Cox Canyon scratched on Friday, reducing this field to a field of four horses. Point Proven broke slowly, and Prairie Hawk was able to take advantage of the small field and continue the trend of wire-to-wire winners.
Prairie Hawk is by Curlin out of a mare Princess Ash who is a half-sister to Kentucky Derby Runner Normandy Invasion.
Prairie Hawk has back-to-back wins after running evenly in his debut at six furlongs.
With Point Proven stumbling at the start and Groveland breaking out, this allowed Prairie Hawk to establish the inside position, Groveland did make a run going into the turn, but this was off a slow fraction of 50-seconds for the half and 1:14 and 1/5 for 6 furlongs. The pace of this race was unhurried early, average late.
Prairie Hawk is possible for the Sam F Davis stakes on February 11. Classic Catch was hindered the most by the slow pace and short field. Point Proven spun his wheels after stumbling, and this is a toss race for handicappers trying to analyze this performance. When a horse stumbles at the start of the race, it can sometimes put young horses on the shelf; hopefully, Point Proven will be back on the workout report in a few weeks.
Fairgrounds:
The Lecomte drew an eight-horse field run on Saturday, January 21. The Kentucky Jockey Club winner Instant Coffee has been made the favorite, and Tapit’s Conquest, a maiden winner, enters off the layoff.
Echo Again is 6/1 for trainer Steve Asmussen. Echo Again disappointed last time at Remington Park in the Springboard Mile.
Bromely and Itzos go for trainer Paul Lobo, and Confidence Game, an allowance winner last out, also enters with solid form in a competitive Kentucky Derby Trail Points Race.
The Lecomte is a step up from the recent quality of entrants in the Sham, Jerome, and Springboard Mile. The Gun Runner winner, Jace’s Road, will pass on the Lecomte and point to the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park.
Oaklawn
Hot Springs, Arkansas, was the placement for Verifying, returning to the winner’s circle on Saturday at Oaklawn Park, winning an allowance race off the layoff after finishing 6th in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. The Beyer speed figure returned a 97, and Verifying ran his best race on the class drop and validated his Champagne form with the significant speed figure.
All options are on the table for Verifying for making his next start. He is by Justify and a half-brother to champion Midnight Bisou.
Santa Anita
Hejazi was a punctual favorite Sunday at Santa Anita. The Bob Baffert-trained son of Bernardini was making his 4th-lifetime start after running evenly in the Graded Stakes competition. He broke alert from the rail, and Mike Smith was able to ride him confidently. The fractions were fast on the clock, with a fast pace for the half-mile pole and a quick final time. The runner-up Worcester ran evenly, closing ground late, and could be one to watch if he stretches out next time.
Gulfstream
Todd Pletcher debuted two winners on Saturday at Gulfstream Park. Cuvier debuted in a sprint and was sent off at 9/1 as betters preferred others runners. Cuvier, sired by Collected, had a steady set of works for his debut and led the field into the stretch, several horses looked like they would emerge, but Cuvier was able to find more and hold them off down the stretch. The pedigree has a speedy influence, so that this one may be pointed for one-turn races moving forward.
The highly-regarded Kingsbarns bet down based on the win early pedigree of Uncle Mo the sire and Tapit being the broodmare sire. The Uncle Mo’s win early, and Kingsbarns could lay close to the lead, split horses out of turn, and then hold off a couple of colts showing promise late.
Game Warden (Tapit) was making his 4th-lifetime start, and Prairie Dunes (Curlin) was producing his 5th-lifetime start. Both were able to close late and improve on recent efforts. Arcangelo was also wide early on this race and did not persevere late after the winner emerged on the turn.
The form of this race was a tough race to measure, and the newcomers were disappointed for the most part. Kingsbarns ran professionally, and Game Warden may have passed tired horses late.
Todd Pletcher brought out three maiden winners at the meet, with the maiden winner Shesterkin a sharp winner on debut earlier at the Championship Meet. All three only have one career start, so they will all have to improve quickly in the next 30 days to get a shot at a points race.
Jungfrau and Expect More of the 1-2 finishers in a Gulfstream maiden race a few weeks back. Both worked back over the weekend. Expect More was the 3/5 favorite, and he was taken down with the disqualification, allowing Jungfrau to get the official victory. We could see Jungfrau run back in the Holy Bull Stakes.
Hit Show, the homebred owned by Mary and Gary West, debuted with a victory at Keeneland in his second career race. He bobbled slightly at the start of the race and ran an even fourth against Confidence Game and Ten Days Later, who both jumped up in class in their next starts. That was a stacked allowance race. Shipping to Oaklawn Park, he was bet down to the favorite and rallied from 5th place at the half-mile pole to score by three widening lengths.
The son of Candy Ride has some class on the female family. The mare Actress won 2 of 9 starts and over 500K in career earnings and won the Comely and the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes. This quality pedigree and Hit Show came out of his Allowance to win at Oaklawn with a workout on January 1. Brad Cox mentioned the Southwest Stakes is next.
Faustin was the buzz of the opening day Maiden race at Santa Anita. A partnership purchased the son of Curlin at the OBS two-year-old sale for 800K. With a long string of works, he was well-meant at first asking.
Breaking a little slow, he was off the pace for the race’s first half; going wide into the turn, Faustin could grind away to the victory and stamp as one to watch.
The female family includes the mare – Hard Not to Like, who won eight of 22 starts and over 1.2 million dollars. Wins included the Grade one Gamely Stakes. Grade one Jenny Wiley and Grade one Diana. Those were turf races, but she also finished second in the grade one Ashland stakes on the turf.
The broodmare sire Hard Spun set the pace in the Kentucky Derby won by Street Sense and finished 7 of 13 with over 2 million in career earnings.
Faustin emerged from his win and entered the work tab on January 7, going 4 furlongs in 47 and 2/5. His maiden race was a little on the slow side, but the pedigree suggests distance and late maturing as he gets ready for his second career start.
Something to note is that he did break slow in his debut race after his final four workouts leading into his debut were all gate works on 11/27, 12/4, 12/10, and 12/17.
Dubyuhnell, the Remsen winner, recorded his second work Wednesday at Palm Meadows. The speedy son of Good Magic closed out his Juvenile campaign by defeating Arctic Arrogance at Aqueduct.
The speed figure came back fast from that race, and the raw time was slow, but Dubyuhnell ran much more quickly than Julia Shining at the same distance on the same day.
Wonder the Wheel, the two-year-old champion filly, returned on the work tab for trainer Mark Casse. She worked a solo three furlongs on her first trip to Florida. The Davona Dale is the early target for the filly who won the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies.
“People Have Opinions, horses have the facts”