Thoroughbred Prospectus
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The Big Apple
Jerome Stakes Recap
The Jerome Stakes pre-race buzz focused on the recent maiden winners Neural Network, Circling The Drain, and Lugan Knight. Arctic Arrogance entered with a runner-up finish in the Remsen Stakes that earned a high-speed rating, and Andiamo a Firenze had shown Grade one speed, setting the pace in the Champagne stakes. Circling the Drain was scratched on Saturday morning, removing one of the potential speed horses.
Dylan Davis rode Lugan Knight aggressively to take the lead, and Andiamo a Firenze, broke on top and was on the information, and then they chose to rate him, and he was taken back and hemmed inside. This decision to rate Andiamo a Firenze conceded the lead to Lugan Knight. Arctic Arrogance set up the chase from the pace-setter position.
At the top of the stretch, it became a two-horse race with Lugan Knight and Arctic Arrogance; Lugan Knight was stubborn and could hold off a gritty Arctic Arrogance through the stretch run and picked up the stakes victory. Arctic Arrogance settled for second, and they were seven lengths ahead of the third-place finisher General Banker who picked off horses on the backside and finished an even third.
The field was an above-average Jerome stake from a pace and final finish. Lugan Knight and Arctic Arrogance are both prime players for the Gotham Stakes and possibly the Wood Memorial. Arctic Arrogance has put together three above-average efforts and may need a little break by passing on the Withers Stakes. Lugan Knight fits in class-wise for the one-mile Gotham.
The Great Race Place
Three Bob Baffert’s and Spun Intended was the pre-race buzz. Class-wise, National Treasure was tabbed by many to emerge from the sham, and he went off as the heavy favorite at 1/2. Spun Intended attracted some significant support at 9/5. A potential speed horse in Speed Boat Beach was scratched.
Reincarnate was sent to the lead with Spun Intended tracking outside of him; at the half-mile pole.
Reincarnate opened up the lead, with Newgate and National Treasure gaining ground into the stretch, Newgate made a bold move to the leader, but Reincarnate was able to hold him off.
National Treasure was rated early, moved into the turn, and was out-finished by Newgate. This race did little to separate the Bob Baffert Horses, and National Treasure had a big gallop out, and Newgate came from off the pace to make a mid-race move.
Championship Meet
Gulfstream Park on Sunday had an allowance race for Sophomores that featured maiden race winners Litigate, Rudder’s Men, Cyclone Mischief, and Mr. Ripple.
Centennial Farms debuted Litigate, the son of Blame, at the Big A on November 19; he picked up the win after a long drive, defeating a Chad Brown 4/5 shot.
Litigate has shipped to Florida following the maiden win and recorded five workouts in December and January, five-furlong moves, and a four-furlong move on January 1.
Mr. Ripple debuted a 9-length winner at Gulfstream Park, and Rudder’s Men was a sharp winner in New York.
Rudder’s Men was the 4/5 favorite in the betting, with Gulfstream Park winner Litigate also receiving support. Cyclone Mischief a son of Into Mischief, shipped in solid form from Kentucky.
Rudder’s Men took the early lead with pressure from Mr. Ripple on his outside. Going into the turn, Rudder’s Men began to falter, and Litigate and Cyclone Mischief moved in tandem, with Litigate giving way first.
Cyclone Mischief powered away to the victory, with Tyler Gaffalione judging the pace and getting inside position on Litigate going into the turn. Holy Bull and Fountain of Youth are both options for Cyclone Mischief, and Dale Romans is back on the trail!
Fairgrounds Focus
Phileas Fogg: Phileas won a Maiden Special Weight race by wiring the field on December 8. Sired by grade one winner on the turf Astern. Michael Stidham trains for Godolphin. Taking command early, he was allowed to settle on the backstretch and then drew off down the lane with a vigorous gallop-out. The fractions were very slow, and the speed figure is a little slow, but the class level and connections make this one worth noting. The pedigree leans turf, but he has some scope to him. Jockey Colby Hernandez was patient and was able to save ground and asked him near the wire, with the slow fractions he needed to gallop out to get something out of this race. He switched leads on cue and ran straight down the stretch. Most importantly, he returned to the work tab on December 27 with a four-furlong move on the dirt.
Tapit Shoes: Debuted with a mid-pack effort but was on the mark in the second career start for trainer Brad Cox when stretched out in his second start. The fractions were slow on the board, but the final time was fast with a slow early, fast late race shape. The race fractions have needed to be faster in many Fairgrounds races for routes so far in the meet, making speed figure evaluation hard to judge.
He is a half-brother to Grade One winner Cyberknife, who won the Haskell Stakes and the Arkansas Derby in 2021 as a three-year-old. Gun Runner sired Cyberknife, and Tapit Shoes is by Tapit, which still gives him a dirt and stamina influence.
Banishing: Showed quality speed on the front end and established an inside position in the maiden race. His second start was a tremendous improvement from his first start, and the pedigree has stamina influences like A. P. Indy on the mare side, the lots of black type for a three-generation Godolphin home-bred. Banishing returned to the work tab on Saturday with a three-furlong breeze which is a good sign after the big win.
The significant improvement in early speed and overall speed figure bump in start number two is encouraging. Tactical speed is essential in the early winter prep races. The official margin of victory was 8.5 lengths, and he officially led at every call. Brian Hernandez should be a good fit for this son of Ghostzapper, a March foal.
Corona Bolt: Has dominated in both starts of his career, breaking his maiden at Churchill Downs and following that up with a facile score at the Fairgrounds. Corona Bolt is another runner trained by Brad Cox, who starts the year with several contenders based at Oaklawn Park and the Fairgrounds, who can make some noise this spring.
Racing lasix free in his debut, he did opt for the lasix in the Sugar Bowl stakes. His Fairgrounds win was the perfect race to gain some experience, and with two sprints to begin his career, he has sharpened his speed, and the connections have indicated that stretching him out is the next challenge. The Lecomte would be the logical spot.
Corona Bolt is from the first crop of Bolt d’Oro, and Bolt d’Oro ended up the leading Freshman sire by earnings for 2022. He finished with 80 runners and 29 winners, with Instant Coffee, the Kentucky Jockey Club winner, trained by Brad Cox.
Corona Bolt is one of the more visually impressive runners, with a fluid stride and using natural speed, and he has been able to throttle it down on the lead in both his starts; he is not head-strong, and he turned the corner on a straight line in both his starts.
His Sire was precocious, running 2nd in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile, and engaged in a thrilling stretch run in the San Felipe with McKinzie dueling to the wire off the long layoff. He never really regained his form. A slow four-furlong breeze on Saturday indicates he came out of the Sugar Bowl in good order. Trainer Brad Cox mentioned the Southwest as the next race for Corona Bolt.
Instant Coffee: The Kentucky Jockey Club winner returned to the work tab after a short layoff. The son of Bolt d’Oro flashed potential in his debut at Saratoga, winning first out as a longshot.
In his second career start, he ran evenly in a deep cast of winners in the Keeneland Breeder’s Futurity. That field included the Breeder’s Cub Juvenile winner in Forte and fast maiden winner Loggins. Frosted Departure came back to win minor stakes at Oaklawn Park. The entry box was 16, and 14 horses ran in the most talented two-year-old stakes race of the 2022 Juvenile season.
Instant Coffee held off five challengers in the Kentucky Jockey Club Juvenile. Six horses finished within 2 1/2 lengths and spread across the track in a wild finish.
With three races as a Juvenile and a short layoff, he fits among the top 50 most accomplished three-year-olds coming into 2023. In his debut, he had a versatile running style and could close ground and run on the inside of horses at the rail. Then in the Kentucky Jockey Club, he ran wide and made a quick move to pass horses.
Instant Coffee needs to improve its speed figures, and Brad Cox indicates that Lecomte Stakes could be next for Instant Coffee.
Tapit’s Conquest: The Brad Cox show continues with this leggy son of Tapit, out a Horse Greeley mare. Tapit’s Conquest finished 2nd in his debut to a highly regarded favorite in Powerful. Powerful won the race, but it was his second career start, compared to the first race of Tapit’s Conquest career. Finishing strongly, Tapit’s Conquest reappeared at Churchill Downs, and either the drop in class or improvement, he showed more speed and was able to defeat a field that included five Ellis Park Runners and a Colonial Downs runner.
The Churchill Downs maiden race was an above-average field with only one first-time starter. Tapit’s Conquest has a smooth stride and has shown the ability to run near the pace in his debut race was able to race outside horses before being overtaken late. He is working out at the Fairgrounds with three workouts in December and a January 1 workout. We should see him at Oaklawn Park or the Fairgrounds in January or February.
Giant Mischief has been wintering down at the Fairgrounds after his runner-up effort in the Springboard Mile. The son of Into Mischief debuted at “The Shoe” in Indiana and rolled victory late, after breaking a step slow and then was trapped inside horses in the short five-and-a-half-furlong race.
In his second start, he ran fast in a victory at Keeneland, then in the Springboard Mile, he broke a step slow and went wide into the stretch, running in spots and then idling before finishing with some energy late.
The son of Into Mischief has gained a lot of experience in his three races. He has broken slow, steadied between horses, dueled on the inside of horses, and then raced wide. That experience should benefit him. With only three lifetime races, he has gotten the most out of those efforts.
The next start for Giant Mischief will be the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, and he is another candidate for the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland for his final prep.
Filly Update
Munny’s Gold: Munny’s Gold is a filly worth remembering, and she debuted at Monmouth Park. Munny’s Gold was bet down to the post-time favorite and drew off to a 14-length victory. The win was a dominating wire-to-wire score; the speed figure returned fast. The race returned a 101 on the Beyer speed figure scale, which is fast for June. The average is closer to 73 in June.
Following the big victory, the initial plan was to go to Saratoga and run, possibly in the Spinaway. She came out of that race with minor issues, and they backed off on the training, sending her out for a few months.
She has returned to training and has recorded ten workouts since October 29. She has worked multiple four and five-furlong moves. She is fast, and Todd Pletcher also trained the sire Munnings. Todd has been a maestro with the fillies for the past 15 years. In the last two years, he has pushed all the right buttons with Nest and Malathaat. Munny’s Gold has the raw speed. The big question will be the distance.
The early signs are that she may be best at distances under one mile and not be the classic 9-10 furlong horse. Todd also has other fillies to point towards the Ashland Stakes, but the raw speed could still pick some great spots like the Beaumont, the Acorn, and the Test Stakes.
Hoosier Philly, the undefeated winner of the Golden Rod Stakes, is pointing for Rachel Alexandra.
Julia Shining, who won the Demoiselle and a Maiden Special Weight race at Keeneland and a full sister to Kentucky Oaks winner and champion older female Malathaat, is back on the work tab, recording moves on January 1 and January 7.
Justique scratched from the Santa Ynez after spiking a fever on Friday. Justique was the morning line favorite and will now point to the Las Virgenes.
“People Have Opinions, horses have the facts”