Thoroughbred Prospectus
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The Road Begins
Welcome to season two of the Horseplayer and season one of Thoroughbred Prospectus. The name change reflects the seasonality of the Triple Crown and two-year-olds turning three, with winter and spring focusing on the developing three-year-olds.
Many handicappers will concentrate on the Triple Crown, diving deeper into the maiden and allowance races. Identifying prospects and the skill level of young horses helps when betting on many other possible races in spring and early summer.
Many of these are the critical undercard races that are part of multi-race wagers.
Identifying key races and assessing class level by track and racing circuit can be some of the most profitable springtime scores.
Casting a wide net and identifying a potential pool of runners will allow for opportunities at various racetracks, class levels, and distances.
The weekly goal is to inform, educate, recap, and stay updated on horses who could compete in many prep races along the trail. Sharing knowledge, watching replays, and thinking critically about the trips, will take your handicapping to the next level. Each year a story unfolds from January through June, and I hope to be your guide.
One of the main handicapping factors is Speed Figures, which will be featured prominently in many updates. I will focus on patterns and identify improving speed figures that could lead to predicting improvement or decline. Three-Year-Olds can improve rapidly at this time of the year, and up until they have five starts, they may change running styles.
Brisnet and TimeformUS are becoming the most reliable speed figures in the industry. Beyer speed figures do not adjust for pace and have become “Performance” figures which work well for older horses. Still, with improving horses, they can improve or decline rapidly, and in recent years I don’t believe the Beyer Boys have been as accurate.
The racing class will be another focus in the weekly updates. Grading class level is hard to quantify, but ultimately, it determines if a horse can make the next step. Grade One winners are the best of the best, with the Santa Anita Derby, Florida Derby, Arkansas Deby, and Bluegrass Stakes all being Grade One preps for the Triple Crown. These are the most demanding final preps, and the top horses target these Grade One Races. The Wood Memorial is always a question mark with the spring weather, and the Louisiana Derby length of one mile and 3/16th is unique in distance and timing for the Kentucky Derby.
The overall goal is to identify horses with upside, improving horses and horses with bad trips, slow paces, and surfaces and distances that may not showcase their true talent and class level. As a general rule, more horses will run themselves off the trail than will run their way into the Triple Crown picture.
We will start weekly rankings following the Holy Bull!
The Division Leader:
Forte put together an underrated campaign, winning four of five starts and three significant grade-one races. He picked up victories in the Hopeful at Saratoga, the Keeneland Breeder’s Futurity, and came off the pace at the Breeder’s Cup to win a third straight race. He was not favored in any of those races and showed an off-the-pace running style.
Plans for Forte are emerging, and his first primary race will be the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park on March 4. He will likely get his first work of the 2023 campaign in Mid January. The goal is a two-prep campaign, with the final prep being the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, where Forte is two for two and then could stay in Kentucky and train up to the Kentucky Derby with minimal shipping.
A second option for his final prep would be the Florida Derby, keeping both his preps in the Sunshine State and heading to Kentucky for two to three weeks. Traditionally Todd Pletcher has run his best prospects in the Florida Derby, but with Forte’s record at Keeneland and the Blue Grass stakes now a grade one, both options are on the table.
Irad Ortiz has been the jockey in all five of his career starts, and the 110K September Yearling purchase has been a bargain buy. Todd Pletcher is the all-time leader with Kentucky Derby starters.
We will chronicle more about Forte in the weeks ahead when he returns to the work tab.
Stakes Recap
Gun Runner Stakes
Jace’s Road officially wired the Gun Runner stakes, breaking alertly he set the pace and led at the 1/2, 3/4, and stretch call before pulling away and winning by 5.5 lengths. Jace’s Road debuted with a dominating victory at Ellis Park. In the Ellis Park maiden breaker, Jace’s Road could stay within 1/2 length at the half-mile pole before running away from the competition and rolling to a 6-length score.
The Gun Runner was a solid bounce-back race for Jace’s Road, and he did have an excuse in the Street Sense race when he finished 8th while dumping the rider as they were loading into the gate. Gate issues are usually not a positive indicator for any horse. For a two-year-old with limited experience, it likely put him over the top and unable to run his race.
Interestingly, they paid 510K for the son of Quality Road. The female family is light on distance racing, and these connections usually look for distance horses on the turf. Quality Road can sire a good dirt horse, and many excel early in their careers. The first mare is Out Post, a Kentucky bred who finished with 203K earnings with 20 lifetime starts. She did her best running on the turf. The second mare was zero for seven on the track. Middle-distance races and, at some point, trying the turf in the summer may be in store for Jace’s Road.
Plenty of options are on the table for Jace’s Road’s next race; wheeling back in the Lecomte is an option, or the Southwest stakes are also on the table; the connections could also consider the possibility of synthetic at Turfway with some synthetic and turf influences in the pedigree.
Mucho Macho Man Recap
The Mucho Macho Man kicks off the Gulfstream three-year-old stakes season. The flat mile distance was able to attract a field of twelve horses. Legacy Isle and General Jim attracted support at the windows. General Jim was going turf to dirt off the layoff, and Legacy Isle had a quick win over the Gulfstream surface. General Jim was the race favorite at 2/1
Legacy Isle was able to secure the lead early and drifted out slightly in the stretch. General Jim saved ground and pinned at the rail going into the turn and the entire stretch run, unable to get out and run cleanly. A solid effort on the dirt overall for General Jim.
Legacy Isle held off Dreaming of Kona during the stretch run, but the inquiry and objection light went up. The stewards took a long look at the inquiry and objection and placed Dreaming of Kona first and Legacy Isle second.
Lord Miles ran well in his second-lifetime start despite the wide draw; he could step up in class and be closing ground late. The pedigree suggests more distance; he can improve with only two career starts.
Smarty Jones
Victory Formation was the 6/5 morning line favorite for the Smarty Jones and opened up at 2/5. Brad Cox sent out the top choice based on a 93 and 95 Brisnet speed rating, giving him a slight edge over Ten Days Later. Recent winner Communication Memo, a sharp maiden winner for Steve Asmussen, also received betting support. Victory Formation had a previous better finish over Communication Memo, defeating him in his career debut. Communication Memo ran third in that race.
Flavien Prat flew in from California to ride the prospect after Luis Saez had ridden the colt in his first two races.
Victory Formation secured the lead early and set a fast pace. He cleared the half with a two-length lead into the stretch. Angel of Empire made a mid-race move to get into third place, saved ground into the stretch, and gained second, getting a one-two finish for trainer Brad Cox.
The winner, Victory Formation, is now three for three and passes the two-turn test. He dominated this race, looking like a winner at the half-mile pole. The aggressive ride early took the starch out of the recent maiden winners. The son of Tapwrit, out of a Smart Strike mare, most likely stays in Arkansas for his next start. With two races as a Juvenile and a start on January 1, he is fit, and this one-mile race was a perfect tightener. Trainer Brad Cox in the post-race interview mentioned the Rebel for his next start, possibly skipping the Southwest Stakes.
Feel the Thunder
New York Thunder impressed on Friday mowing the lawn at Gulfstream Park. His debut was fast on the synthetic. The son of Nyquist took his talent to the turf, and the handicappers bet him down to 4/5. He broke alertly, and he set fast fractions. The fractions were fast early, and the race returned to a fast late race shape. He was pulling away to the victory. The son of Nyquist is quick, I’m curious to know how far this one wants to go, but his two quick wins are worth noting. New York Thunder tops a short list of horses in the sprint division.
Sham:
Arabian Knight continues to record workouts but was noticeably absent from the Sham nominations. Arabian Knight worked out six furlongs on Friday, ran with his head down, was rated early, and finished a solid final quarter with a big gallop out. Substantial work from a conditioning standpoint, and he is ready to run now. They are opting to keep blowing him out in the mornings and train up to the Robert Lewis, leading to the Santa Anita Derby or Arkansas Derby as his final prep and potentially going into the Kentucky Derby off three-lifetime races and one race as a two-year-old.
Bob Baffert has several options, including Fort Warren, which debuted a winner at Santa Anita on October 30. Two-time stakes winner Havnameltodwn is sharp and continues to train fast in the mornings. National Treasure 3rd in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile and 2nd in the American Pharoah to Cave Rock could also point to this January 8 race.
Jerome
Full Moon Madness, the 2nd place finisher in the Nashua, has fired off four workouts in December. Post Time, the Silky Sullivan runner from Laurel Park, who is three for three in sprint races, is nominated but has recorded no workouts in December, and we will see if he shows up in the Withers or Gotham Stakes. General Banker, who dominated the New York Stallion Stakes on December 17, has the option for a quick turn-around.
The Curse of Apollo
Shesterkin avoided the “The Curse of Apollo” by winning the highlight Maiden Special Weight race on Saturday at Gulfstream. The race was dominated by five of the eight runners making their career debut at the demanding distance of seven furlongs. Case bred in Iowa took the late money and was able to save ground, getting even with the winner before Shesterkin, who was prominent early, repulsed the challenge from case mid-stretch and went on to victory. With the championship meet starting later this year, this was the first race that featured the New York and Kentucky stables in for the winter. Shesterkin is out of Freedom Star, a lovely mare winning six 14 races, including the Iowa Distaff.
Shesterkin, trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Irad Ortiz, is a son of Violence, and Todd Pletcher trains Forte, another son of Violence.
More Thunder
On Saturday, Oaklawn Park ran a entire card of two-year-old races to close out the year. Trainer Ken McPeek won four races on the card, including a maiden race by Sun Thunder, who was making his second lifetime start, and he lost to the seven-length winner Determinedly in his debut.
Bet down to even money, Sun Thunder was off the pace and moved into contention with a wide-sweeping move to engage the leaders before the turn. A son into mischief with some class in the female family, with the second mare being Maryfield, who won over 1 million on the track.
Road Work:
November maiden winner Signator came off the bench and returned to work on New Year’s Eve. The son of Tapit broke his maiden at the Big A in his second-lifetime start. He took a break after that race and reappeared for a slow three-furlong work at Payson Training Center, where the track is deep, and horses get conditioning on that surface.