Overview: The Smarty Jones is the start of the Oaklawn Park road to the 2023 Kentucky Derby. This one-mile event leads to the Southwest, Rebel, and Arkansas Derby. Traditionally Oaklawn has delivered big fields in the prep races, but the overall quality has been overtaken by several California and Gulfstream Park horses that have shipped in.
Analysis: Victory Formation is the likely favorite. Brad Cox won the Gun Runner Stakes Monday at the Fairgrounds, and Victory Formation is the dominant speed. Angel of Empire comes from off the pace and is by Classic Empire out of a To Honor and Serve Mare and could improve if the track comes up sloppy.
Communication Memo is sharp and dominated a maiden race on December 16th at Oaklawn Park. The race’s final quarter was fast, and Steve Asmussen has done well in the three-year-old stakes races at Oaklawn Park in recent years. Communication Memo is poised to run a big race on the quick turn-around.
Ten Days Later dominated classy horses at Keeneland and emerged with an 80 Brisnet speed figure in the maiden win. He has five career starts and may have a stamina edge in a race with some lightly raced horses. He was closing on a race track that favored front-runners in his most recent race. His 91 Brisnet speed figure in that race gives him a fighting chance to upset at a small price.
Denington is another with some dirtied-up form. He has been closing in quality races with five-lifetime races, all five at two turns. He cuts back to one mile after three straight one-mile and 1/16 races. He should be fit, and recent works indicate there is still holding form.
Angel of Empire is slower on the speed figures but has the right running style, both his wins were on the dirt, and the one loss was on the demanding Kentucky Downs turf course.
Betting: Victory Formation goes up in class and will face other speeds; he most likely will be an underlay in this spot. Communication Memo is sharp; if he is over 6/1, he might be worth using in daily doubles. My top selection is Ten Days Later, which has the one win and will be closing late into a potentially fast pace. Ten Days Later at 4/1 or higher is the price play in a very competitive race.