Overview: The Sham Stakes is the first leg of the Santa Anita Road to the 2023 Kentucky Derby. The Robert Lewis and Santa Anita Derby are longer at one mile and one-sixteenth and one mile and one-eighth. The Sham Stakes at one mile is a chance for recent maiden winners to determine their class level against other winners on the circuit.
Sham Analysis:
Newgate debuted at Del Mar with a dominating victory in a sprint race. He has been disappointing since that race, but his most recent effort offered encouragement. The one-mile distance should not be an issue, and Newgate is one of four Bob Baffert horses entered in the race.
National Treasure is the likely race favorite, with the class lines of running second in the American Pharoah Stakes and third in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile to Forte and Cave Rock as the top two runners for the Juvenile Eclipse Award. Bob Baffert trains this fast, colt.
Spun Intended tipped his hand in a fast maiden race losing to the talented Fort Warren in his debut, before dominating a maiden race and drawing off to a six-length score in his second-lifetime start. The Sham will be his third career start and first race against winners. He is fast and fit and should be in the lead in this race, possibly battling with Speed Boat Beach.
Betting: National Treasure is the most likely favorite based on this Grade one class. His maiden win was fast, and he has the speed to run from just off the pace in this spot. Speed Boat Beach is the speed of the race and should allow his stablemate to come running late. Spun Intended won easily in his most recent start and seems like a talented runner on the rise. Newgate is another who could benefit from a speed duel early and is the choice at a potential price of 6/1.