Overview: This week, the Kentucky Derby Trail moves to Hot Springs, Arkansas, and the Rebel Stakes. Recent allowance winner Gun Pilot is one of three for trainer Steve Asmussen, Reincarnate ships in from Santa Anita, and Brad Cox sends out the top two favorites with Giant Mischief and Verifying.
Rebel Analysis:
Verifying draws the rail and will have to send to establish position; with three-speed horses inside six posts, the pace could get a little hot on the front end. Verifying ran a fast speed figure off the layoff in his allowance win at one mile. He doesn’t need the lead to win this race, but he has the most upside of the top contenders.
Giant Mischief mixed signals on this son of Into Mischief. He dominated in his debut with a late rush to win a sprint race at the Shoe. He was very game in his second start while taking advantage of the rail trip. He broke slow and made a sustained run while running on the outside part of the track in the Springboard Mile. He is improving, and most likely, he comes off the pace and should get a good race flow and pace to run into, making for a solid late run. Giant Mischief is capable of winning this.
Reincarnate started his career on the turf and continues to train fast after winning the Sham Stakes. The morning line of 7/2 is fair but most likely gets bet below that number. He has the speed figures to win this and does his best running on the front end, and he may not bet his best trip to win this race.
Gun Pilot won an allowance race at Oaklawn Park after being defeated by Verifying two starts back. The race he lost to Verifying was his second and Verifying 4th-lifetime start, so he gave up some seasoning. He is improving
Red Route One is a deep closer who needs a large field and a solid pace to run his best race, he is on a losing streak, and there may be better class levels to get him the win.
Event Detail ships in from Turfway, and most recently, he won a maiden race with a fast-speed figure on the synthetic surface. He moves up in class and is a closer who should get a good trip coming from off the pace.
Betting: Verifying and Giant Mischief are the logical choices, and there is a strong chance one of those two will win this race. I’m leaning on Verifying because he has the most room to improve. Event Detail is the longshot who may be one to include in exactas.