Overview: The quality starts to heat up on the Kentucky Derby Trail. The Lecomte has drawn previous stakes winners in Two Phils and Kentucky Jockey Club winner Street Sense. Winning the Lecomte allows the connections to ship to Oaklawn Park, point to the Risen Star, or train up to the Louisiana Derby.
Lecomte Analysis:
Echo Again dominated a maiden race at Saratoga with one of the flashiest wins of the Spa meet. He has struggled in the stretch in his last two races and would need 6/1 odds or higher to justify a wager in this race. It’s a mystery how much he has regressed from his maiden race.
Denington adds blinkers and will get more pace to run into. He needs a larger field and contested pace to run his best race. Demand 10/1 or higher, but his best surface may be turf.
Bromley is one of two horses for Paulo Lobo, a quick win at Turfway, and most likely will contest the pace.
Confidence Game benefitted from a front-running ride at Churchill Downs in his most recent race. He has tactical speed, and Bromley could cause him to move earlier than anticipated. He is capable but will need to get a good ride.
Tapit’s Conquest is entered in an allowance race and the Lecomte on Saturday. His maiden win was impressive and should improve on the stretch out; the third lifetime start off the layoff is a plus in this spot.
Instant Coffee is the proven G2 stakes winner and has been pointed to this spot for a few months. He has hit all his work and keeps Luis Saez for this engagement. All Systems go, but the price might be short.
Two Phil’s won the Shakopee Juvenile in a blowout and then came back and won at Churchill Downs in the Street Sense. He has shown speed sprinting but was able to win from off the pace in the Street Sense. His speed figures need to improve, but he may be an overlay based on his overall form.
Betting: Instant Coffee might be the underlay based on the horseplayers’ fascination with hammering the Brad Cox runners at the window. Tapit’s Conquest adds intrigue if he runs in this spot. My selection is Bromley, who moves synthetic to dirt and stretches out, getting more distance. The trainer does well with horses rising in class and 6/1 seems like a fair price.