Overview: The Jerome kick off the New York road to the Triple Crown. The Withers, Gotham, and Wood Memorial. The one-mile distance and first week in January traditionally allow some New York Breds and shippers from Parx and Laurel to do well in this spot.
Analysis: Arctic Arrogance adds some speed and proven class. He set a fast fraction in the sleepy Hollow Stakes, then set the pace in the Remsen, and that was run faster than par for the class level. He has a win-early pedigree and is in sharp form. It will take an above-average Jerome winner to defeat Arctic Arrogance.
Lugan Knight ships in from Kentucky; he had a troubled trip a couple of starts ago and won a high-class maiden race. In his last start, he lost to Victory Formation, who ended up winning the Smarty Jones last week at Oaklawn Park. He might be the price play.
Neural Network Chad Brown has done well in recent years with the New York circuit. Neural Network dominated at the Big A and won by five lengths. Cloud Computing is the sire, and Chad Brown trained him to a Preakness. Likely a race favorite and can come off the pace.
Circling the Drain, Laurel Park shipper stretched out in his second start and won at two turns taking advantage of a slow pace and picking up the easy win, and now has to face better horses.
Andiamo a Firenze has grade one speed setting the pace in the Champagne stakes and a powerful victory in the Funny Cide. He will be the speed of the race, and the one-mile distance is his best chance to win a stakes race at one mile.
Betting: Lugan Knight is the price play at over 5/1. My top choice is Neural Network, which is going up in class but draws the rail for connections that do well in the winter in New York.