Overview: The Gun Runner Stakes is the final two-year-old prep race; this race was added to the Kentucky Derby Prep season by Churchill Downs, which also owns the Fairgrounds. Run at 1 mile and 1/16, horses that flash enough ability can move on to the Lecomte Stakes or the Risen Star stakes.
Analysis: Mazing Mark is the only dirt stakes winner in the field with a victory at Delta Downs in Jean Lafitte. Andthewinneris won the Bourbon Stakes, a grade two on the lawn at Keeneland. The morning line favorite is the Brad Cox-trained Jace’s Road, who dominated a maiden race in his debut by six lengths before finishing third in the slowly run Iroquois Stakes. His best chance of winning will probably be setting the pace or being near the pace.
Determinedly is the “now” horse and may go off favored; he dominated a Churchill Downs maiden race last out, winning by seven lengths on a day that speed had an advantage; with six-lifetime races, he is fit, fresh off a maiden win and Luis Saez figures to have him near the pace.
Hayes Strike is the proven closer in the race, and with three stakes races and the rail draw should be able to work out a good trip with the inside draw, and the long Fairgrounds stretch should work to his advantage. B. J. Hernandez goes back on and was the pilot aboard his four-length score in his maiden race.
Betting: The top three-morning line favorites figure to dominate the tote board; Jace’s Road has speed and most likely has his best chance to win as the speed of the speed. Fair Odds are 8/5, with the longshot play Mazing Mark to use in Exactas, Trifectas, and Superfectas.