Old Hilltop in Baltimore for the Iconic Middle Jewel of the Triple Crown. A field of 10 has lined up to test the demanding “Tight” turns of Pimlico and the Charm City of Baltimore, Maryland.
The Contenders:
Medina Spirit: Kentucky Derby winner fought off 26/1 shot Mandaloun the length of the Churchill Downs stretch. Will need to hold off stablemate Concert Tour and Midnight Bourbon. Expect more pace pressure this time and the quick two-week turnaround for a small horse makes low odds not very enticing.
Concert Tour: Dominated the Rebel stakes at Oaklawn with a soft speed figure, then regressed in Arkansas Derby at a longer distance and not getting the lead. Drew outside and will need to be on the lead to run his best race. Mike Smith adds intrigue for the second favorite.
Rombauer: Impressive stretch run at Golden Gate and then ran evenly in the Blue Grass on a day when horses near the lead did well. Can he sit mid-pack and make one run? Will the pace pressure be strong enough up front to provide him with a closing punch?
Midnight Bourbon: His best races were on the lead at Churchill Downs and the Fairgrounds. Does he have the speed to send out of the gate and capture the lead from Medina Spirt and does sitting behind Concert Tour give him his best chance to run a top speed figure. Irad Ortiz aboard and he will take some money at the windows.
Crowded Trade: Chad Brown Trains and lots of upside for this lightly raced colt with only three starts. Cloud Computing fit a similar pattern for Chad Brown in 2017. Maiden win at six furlongs and mid-race move in one-mile Gotham says he has the speed to be close at the one-mile mark. Morning line odds at 8/1 and may be sitting on big race with Medina Spirit possibly tired.
Risk Taking: Overall he is slow and more of a deep closer. He will be far back early and will need a racetrack that benefits his running style. This is a good prep for the Belmont Stakes.
The Selection:
Crowded Trade has the most upside and should get the first run at Concert Tour going into the turn. I expect Midnight Bourbon to be pressing the pace and soften the pressure up for Crowded Trade and Rombauer from behind. Concert Tour should send from the outside post. Medina Spirit is back on two weeks’ rest and is a small horse. Crowded Trade at 7/1 or higher is worth a play. Rombauer at 11/1 or Higher is worth using in Doubles and Pick 3’s.