The 145th Run for the Roses at Churchill Downs will have a full field and a robust list of contenders, who bring proven talent, possible upside and recent form into this demanding 10-furlong distance. The scratch of Omaha Beach will lower the odds on several contenders.
The 2019 Kentucky Derby Field
War of Will – Dominated the Le Comte and Risen Star Stakes. Both those efforts were on the front end and near the pace. In the Louisiana Derby, he had an awkward start and jogged around the track. He was reported to have had a slight injury after that race. The non-effort in the final prep is a concern. But it may have benefitted him as he was trained extra hard the last couple of weeks to get fit and see if he could make the race. Rail draw is a concern; he most likely gets sent a flyer and should be prominent early. Pedigree says turf and running style thinks he will be near the front end. Some things to consider but the price of 20/1 is fair for those questions. He will need to run a career-best speed figure to contend for the win. Benefits from the scratch of Omaha Beach.
Tax – This $50,000 claim has paid his way, and he has a Stoudt pedigree to get the 10-furlong distance of the derby. Overall he has faced the weakest competition and run moderate races. His running style should put him in the mix, but not sure he can chase the speed and hold off the closers: the competition and pace flow and the field size work against his natural abilities. His Wood finish may be a little “dressed” up as two main threats in the race suffered a lot of trouble and Tax was able to avoid trip trouble and get first run on Tacitus. He won’t be on my tickets.
By My Standards – Fans may remember the speedy Goldencents and from his first crop comes the Louisiana Derby winner. His recent works have been the talk of the backstretch. He is being trained in a more demanding “West” Coast style with long, healthy, fast gallops and seems to be peaking for a strong performance. I question the speed figure in the Louisiana Derby since it was hand time. His company lines have been reliable and did receive betting support in his first few races. He has improved his speed figures by 20 points in 40 days. If he can make another jump, he may get a piece of this. My biggest question is what running style will he have early and can he run inside all the speed who are lined up on the outside of him.
Gray Magician – He is suspect on credentials recently finishing second in Dubai and then shipping to America on five weeks. Speed is slower than other longshots, not likely to get the distance and has 8-lifetime races with only one win. He is one of the few tosses for me.
Improbable – Was the poster child and Kentucky Derby Future Book favorite for a lot of racing fans and writers. Then reality happened, and he has lost two straight tough decisions. In the Rebel, he ran wide took the lead and then was outrun late by Long Range Toddy. In the Arkansas Derby, he aimed at Omaha Beach in the slop. He had several excuses for his last race that make him very intriguing. He was fractious in the gate and had to be put in a stall a second time. He also had a great trip to Oaklawn Park. He may not have liked the slop with his massive frame. He was under a drive in the Los As Futurity before responding late. The City Zip pedigree is concerning, but he removes blinkers and is third off the layoff. Has been in training for going on a year and that will be worrisome at some point.
Vekoma – I admire the grit and tenacity of his races, and he has speed. But he has a leg deformity that is a large paddle in his stride. This deformity is going to get worse, and I highly doubt he has a long career. His paddle was more pronounced in the Bluegrass Stakes and going 10 furlongs with an inefficient stride does not inspire confidence. He Looks Like Tarzan, Run Likes Jane.
Maximum Security – Undefeated, untested and unknown coming into the race. Went wire to wire in the Florida Derby and dominated on the front end with a slow pace and track that was conducive to front-runners that day. Has the race speed, but long slow works indicate to me that something may be wrong and they are trying to keep him healthy as possible to deliver a big race at Churchill. He is another who may be “All-In” this race. Has the speed to be near the lead and is one of two horses capable of taking the early lead. His unorthodox training and quirky start to his career, hard to get any definitive read on his real talent. Major upgrade for a chance of him being on the lead with the scratch of Omaha Beach.
Tacitus – Will be overbet based on the trainer, breeding and pedigree. Fast paces in both races have helped him. In the Wood Memorial, the two most likely contenders had trouble at the start. He has some grit and will keep on running, but no real burst of speed to separate from the pack. Hard to imagine a race flow and scenario where his style is the winning style. He looks good on paper, but hard to pull the trigger with his best races coming with perfect trips and has never shown the raw speed to be able to compete with several of these. His fair odds are closer to 15/1.
Plus Que Parfait – Is French for 9th place Derby Finisher.
Cutting Humor – Ran a big race at Gulfstream chasing Bourbon War, then had a load of trouble in the Southwest. His Sunland Derby effort was strong, he pursued a fast pace, made a robust mid-race move to the lead and held off a determined horse in the stretch. Distance is a question, but he has the class and has run several races that are just a notch below the top contenders. Would move up on a sloppy track — some upside and training under the radar. His Sunland Park race was better than it looks on paper.
Haikal – He has been able to take advantage of fast paces. His stretch runs are not as strong as they appear in the past performances — a toss for me with no real upside.
Omaha Beach – The scratch of the probable favorite changes the odds and pace projection in many ways.
Code of Honor – Would benefit most from a fast pace. Has always shown class and recent works indicate he is holding form. Can run inside horses and can make a quick move and go by horses. If he can stay out of trouble, look for this guy to build a strong run. He rallied strongly in the Holy Bull. He is athletic, and the change from Florida to Churchill should boost him up. Throw out the last race when he had no chance with the slow pace. I liked the way he quickly made a move went sent in that race and finished evenly while not trying that hard late.
Win Win Win – Sprint races were fast and continue to grind away against the competition flows in the last two races. Not most likely to win, but could outrun his odds — tough call. Like the pedigree and his sprint races are much faster than his two route attempts. I’m not willing to toss him, but a winning bet would only be as a saver.
Master Fencer – is a Publicity Gimmick by Churchill Downs to make money from the Japanese betting market. He puts the clown in a clown show. This horse has no business being in this race.
Game Winner – Game, sturdy, has grit and versatile running style have him ready to run a big race in the third start of the year. Active finishing jockey, again he makes a mid-race move to pass horses which should benefit him in a full field. The Juvenile champion has back to back losses to start the year but continues to train forwardly with no gaps in works.
Roadster – Has won three of four career races and two off the bench this year. Blazing workouts early and long stamina-building workouts late. The roadster is capable of has a lot of speed and most likely could be sitting in the top four positions wise after four furlongs. Can he finish and can he mix it up with a larger field are the two big questions. Florent Geroux rides for the first time. Interesting contender and lots of room to improve. His Santa Anita Derby was a strong effort and showed the ability to run inside horses early and then slingshot to the outside and pass them all down the stretch. Have a feeling his odds float a little bit. I expect him more forwardly placed with the scratch of Omaha Beach.
Long Range Toddy – Defeated Improbable in the Rebel, and may not have run his best when close to a fast pace in the Arkansas Derby. Look for him to be 10-12 lengths back and try to finish strong. Not sure he can improve in this race and already has eight starts. John Court will try to become the oldest jockey to win the Kentucky Derby at 58 years of age.
Spinoff – Another versatile runner who should like the rain and or sloppy surface. In his debut race, it was raining, so he has run in those conditions. Fired fast race off the bench at Tampa Bay and was out-finished in last race. Stamina building works are a positive, outside post should ensure a clean trip, but he will have to run farther. If you’re looking for a longshot, this is one to consider on all tickets. Moves into the 18th Post.
Country House – is a grinder He who is in shape and needs a string of horses to pass to do his best running. Class level and recent works indicate he is carrying his weight well. An off-track should not be an issue. He has some form that does not show his actual talent level.
Bodeexpress – is the third maiden in the Kentucky Derby in the last 10 years. Has speed but draws the 20th post. His Florida Derby was most likely a fluke.
The Pace
Who will be leading after four furlongs is the biggest question and likely win candidate? Omaha Beach has been on the lead by race flow, but he is not a confirmed front-runner. Maximum Security took advantage of slow fractions to set the pace in the Florida Derby. Vekoma went wire to wire from the 2nd post and on a day when speed was winning at Keeneland. War of Will has enough early zip to try and establish a position. I also get the feeling based on recent works that Roadster will be near the pace. I prefer someone to come off the pace.
The Selection
My top two selections are Improbable who has a burst of speed capable of passing 7-8 horses in short time and making a winning move on the turn. Roadster is also a major upgrade with the scratch of Omaha Beach.