The road to Kentucky continues in Florida with several lightly raced colts adding to an intriguing matchup on a surface that can play “Quirky.” Enticed and Free Drop Billy are scheduled to run in the Gotham Stakes, but with a storm brewing have entered the Tampa Bay Derby if they are not able to ship into New York.
Contenders:
Tiz Mischief has a string of impressive works on XBTV, showing raw speed and the ability to rate and pounce. His best race was the Kentucky Jockey Club coming up a short head losing at the wire to Enticed who he may not have seen on the outside after taking the lead. Son of Into Mischief has both presser and closer running lines in his past performances, and with World of Trouble looking like the lone speed he will have to do his running from behind with several other closers. Tiz Mischief has a solid foundation as a two-year-old and owns three 8.5 furlong races, and a healthy 2nd place finishes chasing the speed at a mile.
Vino Rosso has emerged as the “Wise Guy” horse after being sluggish in the Sam F Davis early. He was t then put under a drive going into the turn, he did finish with interest, but that looks like more of a mirage as Flameaway and Catholic Boy engaged in a stretch-long duel that took the starch out of them and made the late move by Vino Rosso look better than looking. I expect him to take a lot of money, but his actual chances of winning are much less.
Flameaway won a stretch-long duel with Catholic Boy in the Sam F Davis and had shown a versatile running style on all surfaces. Quality colt does have some dirt breeding and has five victories in 7-lifetime starts. Have a feeling last race was the wedding at 9/1, and this may be the funeral. He faces faster speed and runs into a much more class group of closers. Not sure of a race flow that he can win this race.
World of Trouble dominated the Pasco Stakes with a thirteen length win, drawing off over a couple of other horses who had shown early speed coming into that race. The works are light, but a few gallops have not shown up as works, so he has been in regular training. A private purchase after the maiden win, he will go to the front, and every speed figure has him with the two fastest speed figures in the race. He will be in the lead, and if he can get the distance, he may just have too much speed for the rest of this field to catch him.
Untamed Domain will take a lot of money at the windows, trained by Graham Motion and owned by West Point who has hundreds of owners and friends who bet on their horses. But he is no Animal Kingdom; he has raced six times, not sure how much improvement is left in him. He did face a sound field in the Dania Beach. Running style and body type say turf is his game.
Quip was impressive in back to back wins in Kentucky last fall. A sharp maiden score at Churchill Downs over the highly regarded Payne and then a definite win in a slow allowance race at Keeneland from an inside post. He was checked early int he Kentucky Jockey Club and never rallied in a race that featured a big field and several horses with mid-race moves. Works have been at the Fairgrounds this winter and pedigree lean towards one mile on the female side. Like the talent but this may be a tough ask off the layoff.
Fair Odds
World of Trouble 4/1
Quip 12/1
Untamed Domain 10/1
Flameaway 14/1
Tiz Mischief 5/1
The Selection:
World of Trouble looks like the lone speed and assuming Enticed and Free Drop Billy both make it to the Gotham Stakes he should be set for a huge race, and the race flow favors his running style. Tiz Mischief has had a string of good works and showed a lot of talent last year he would be the 2nd choice if you don’t want to lean too much on the lone speed. If the surface is “Quirky” you may want to toss Quip on a few tickets.