The road to Kentucky continues at Oaklawn Park with a field of eleven entered in the Southwest Stakes. Shippers from New York, Florida, Kentucky, and California, should make this an excellent regional quality check.
Contenders:
Sporting Chance is a Grade 1 Hopeful winner who has shown speed and the ability to grit out some tough fractions and keep on running. Enters off a sharp string of workouts and has some proven class coming into this race facing good company last year as a juvenile. Most likely favorite or second choice. Comes off knee surgery last fall and should be fresh in this spot. Drew well, if he has developed, he could take this field a long way. Look for a good race, but he is most likely to return in Rebel and Arkansas Derby, a good effort could move him forward.
Mourinho dominated the Smarty Jones as a 2/5 favorite in a five-horse field. The race flow and small field benefitted him that day, and he will have to face a bulkier field. Sire Super Daddy was an off-track horse and Mourinho who is smaller and doesn’t carry a lot of weight could benefit with his speed if the track comes up sloppy. Will most likely be overbet and I don’t think this is an actual derby contender. He is more similar to Toews on Ice and Secret Circle than the top Baffert Triple Crown threats. Mourinho figures to go favored based on the speed figure earned in a small field as the lone speed. He stretches out, faces other speed and is in a more substantial field this round.
Seven Trumpets showed speed on the stretch out and lost in the final strides in a minor stakes race in New York, faces more company up front in this spot. He has some ability but with limited workouts, the past month, leaning towards others. Capable of winning some of the minor derbies this summer not sure he has the talent to run with the Grade 1 Big Dogs.
Combatant was pace compromised in a small field in the Smarty Jones and chased Mourinho around the race track in futility. With more horses showing speed in this race, potentially Sporting Chance and Retirement Fund his odds improve in this race. Chased the talented Greyvitos at Remington Park and galloped out strong in both races. This son of Scat Daddy looks like a turf horse and distance does not seem to be an issue. Like his chances in this spot. He is progressing and moving forward; continued improvement puts him in the mix down the road.
Zing Zang slow developing closer ran a sneaky good race in the Lecomte Stakes and got speed to run at this spot. Like the outside draw and Oaklawn Park can benefit horses who “Slingshot” with one move going into the turn. Only negative is he may be too far out of it to get the win money. He will be rolling late and is a must use in the Trifecta and Superfecta. Can see a jump up performance in the next couple of races and added distance should not be an issue. Tapits do run well on sloppy racetracks, and several have run well at Oaklawn Park.
Retirement Fund dominated two races in two starts on the front end, and this talented son of Eskendreya has shown the ability to stick off demanding fractions. Speed to get position and the third-lifetime start could be a right combination in this spot but does face a class jump and other speed. I’m not sure he is a need to lead type but has run well from that position. They might experiment in this spot because he does not have the raw speed like Sporting Chance and Mourinho.
Principe Guilherme also entered in the Risen Star and the Southwest Stakes. Most likely runs in the Risen Star. With Zing Zang and Retirement Fund and Combatant, all in this race trained by Steve Asmussen highly doubt he runs in this race.
Fair Odds
Sporting Chance 4/1
Mourinho 5/1
Zing Zang 9/1
Combatant 6/1
Retirement Fund 12/1
Seven Trumpets – 14/1
The Selection:
With plenty of speed signed on this spot. I like the race flow and form pattern of Combatant and Zing Zang. The Combatant is my top choice with Zing Zang another to use. Mourinho looks vulnerable, Sporting Chance is playable, but questions linger after the knee surgery from last fall.