Santa Anita Park and the one million dollar Santa Anita Derby is the focus this week as Bolt d’Oro makes his second start this year against Justify and Instilled Regard.
Contenders:
Instilled Regard drew the rail and the inside position with a new jockey in the saddle as Joel Rosario replaces Javier Castellano who has opted to ride Bolt d’Oro in this spot. Instilled Regard dominated the Grade 3 Lecomte stakes before running evenly in a slow-paced Risen Star with speed sticking on that day. Since the Risen Star, a series of works has the son of Arch ready to fire a strong race. Jerry Hollendorfer has put the hammer down with six works at various distances getting him dead fit for this race. The versatile running style allows him to dictate the pace in this spot or lay back and make one run. He is fit, on his home base and his form is consistent with some room for upside.
Bolt d’Oro was a fast juvenile, and his FrontRunner Stakes victory may have been the most dominating stakes win in this crop. Since then he disappointed with a rough trip at Old Delmar. His return to victory via disqualification over McKinzie was a strong effort off the bench. They have spent the entire spring getting him to rate and finish in his workouts. His natural speed may put him on the lead in this spot. The opening quarter may be slow in this spot, and it could be a tactical race the opening half mile. Capable of winning and would benefit the most from a slow pace. Nine furlongs may be pushing the upper limits of his distance capability.
Justify has dominated two five horse fields in both his starts and although late to the party making his debut on February 18th, he has worked steadily since the debut race and had his final work on Monday getting six furlongs in 1:13. Speed figures indicate he has the speed opening with a pair of triple-digit Beyer and Brisnet speed ratings. No one from his maiden race has come back to win and third place finisher Paddock Pick was defeated in his next start. He weighed in at 1,258 pounds in his last race, and this barrel-chested son of Scat Daddy does seem imposing on the track with an athletic build. Big horses have high-variance potential, but experience over the years always cautions of a short career, as they need everything in sync to run their best race. Tactics will be crucial and he may go to the lead and try to wire the field as the lone speed. Long-term he does not seem like a need to lead type. He will take the betting money and most likely odds of 3/5. Mike Smith at the controls with another 3/5 shot.
Fair Odds
Justify – even
Bolt d’Oro 7/5
Instilled Regard 6/1
The Selection:
The betting market is screaming an overlay in this spot to Instilled Regard who should benefit from a short field and recent stamina building work-outs. Both Bolt d’Oro and Justify will be underlays based on a variety of handicapping factors that will be affecting the tote-board, but not necessarily their chances of winning. Win or Lose – Instilled Regard is the wager in this spot.