The road to Kentucky continues down in the Bayou with the Risen Star Stakes. A full field representing East, West, and Midwest has gathered for this 50 point race. LeComte winner Instilled Regard is the morning line favorite.
Contenders:
High North has a muddied up form in the Kentucky Jockey Club Juvenile as he was forced to wait and steady as a horse pulled up on the backstretch. Once he was clear, he started moving up quickly and passing horses. He did benefit from a rail trip in that race. Faced strong company lines in first three runs. Faced Good Magic in debut, Avery Island in the second-lifetime start and defeated the well regarded Victory Lane in his maiden victory. Recent work pattern is stable and should run a good race from off the pace. Morning Line of 15/1 is just wrong. He will be 12/1 most likely and is a contender.
Noble Indy ships in from Gulfstream Park. Big bodied colt carries a lot of weight and has a nice stride, numbers are a little slow but should move forward in a third-lifetime start. Inside draw should have him in a right spot down the backstretch. Has the speed to lay within 4-5 lengths of the leaders.
Givemeaminit Louisiana Bred finally broke his maiden in a seventh-lifetime start. Dominated state breds on sloppy race track last race. Has the class, draws inside of the other speed and should be able to sit and press going into the turn. May show more pace than expected.
Instilled Regard dominated the LeComte Stakes win a three-length victory. Had an outside post in that race and got first run from Principe Guilherme and drew off for the win. Javier Castellano remains on him for this race, and he is now the target of all the competition. Good form, substantial works, and pedigree to get the distance. He is a player but facing a taller task than LeComte.
Supreme Aura opened his career with a couple of easy wins at low odds. His allowance win was chasing a cheap speed horse and drew off with authority. Son of Candy Ride should like the distance and has a stable recent workout pattern. He is a solid contender from just off the pace. Has been impressive in both his victories and may have some upside in a third-lifetime start.
Bravazo makes a menacing mid-race move every race that will be effective if he can make the Churchill Downs starting gate. Has run in stakes races and had six-lifetime starts. Not much upside but training well and recent form put him in the mix.
Principe Guilherme was favored in the LeComte and had the 12 post in that race. Raced wide and made a long grinding move as they attempted to rate him that day. I expect him to show speed from the bell in this race and possibly get the first jump on Instilled Regard. He has refused to switch leads in the stretch run of his races and seems to have legs that are crooked so not sure about the long-term outlook.
Fair Odds
Noble Indy 4/1
High North 9/1
Instilled Regard 5/1
Supreme Aura – 8/1
High North – 10/1
The Selection:
Contention runs deep in this spot with Instilled Regard likely to be slightly overbet. Fresh faces are strong horses. High North is the top pick, but Supreme Aura, Principe Guilherme, and Noble Indy are all capable of jumping up and winning this race.