A muddy Preakness Stakes is in the forecast with four “New Shooters” ready to take on the 2018 Kentucky Derby champ in Justify. Good Magic adds some class to the field as four horses who ran in the Kentucky Derby are in the mix.
The 2018 Preakness Stakes Field
Quip
Has done his best running on the front end and has some strong slop breeding on both sides of the pedigree. Is sharp and should be fit with this being the third race off the layoff and drawing inside. The possibility exists that he could take a lot of mud with the inside tracking trip.
Lone Sailor
Hard to get a read on this horse. He worked well going into the Kentucky Derby, and he finished well after a rough trip. Not sure what is going to change at Pimlico. He has nine-lifetime races so less room for upside. Jockey switch for the race is overall a neutral, but horse seems to be doing well and fits in class wise. If the surface is sloppy, he may not have enough speed to stay close to the pace and still provide his best closing kick. He needs a contentious pace to develop to make an effective quick move on the turn.
Sporting Chance
Here is a horse that has some muddied up form. His best two races have been wire to wire as a two-year-old. He came off the bench at Oaklawn and was rated as they wanted to stretch his speed and caught a sloppy track. In the Rebel Stakes, that day he was outrun early off a slow pace. In the Bluegrass, he received a passive ride while running inside horses. He had speed, a routers pedigree and was tightened up for the race after drawing an outer post position in the slop in Pat Day Mile. He is better than most of these horses and maybe the speed and the longest shot in the field. May be able to take them a long way on a Muddy track.
Diamond King
He is another who it seems could go to the lead. His overall class level is Grade 3, and the distance does not suit well for him. Facing better horses and not sure if the one 3/16th miles is going to help him.
Good Magic
Ran well in the Kentucky Derby while getting a perfect trip. The trainer does not do well with quick turnarounds and he looked gassed at the end of the Louisville stretch. He has the class, but not sure I want to short of a price. If he tries to win the race, he may end up worse than second. Tactics will ultimately determine how he finishes. I see him as an underlay. Could run well and could see them “wrapping” up on him early if it’s not his day.
Tenfold
The son of Curlin Is a “New Shooter,” but he is lightly raced with only three-lifetime starts and room to improve. Pedigree says slop should not be an issue and he may move up on a muddy surface with Tapit on the female side. He chased and then faded in the slow-paced, fast late Arkansas Derby. Possibly can sit in the middle and see how the race unfolds. I have a feeling with the tricky surface several horses could either relish or suffer in the muddy/sloppy conditions.
Justify
The Kentucky Derby champion with four-speed figures that are all higher than everyone else in the field. He is two for two on sloppy tracks. Overall Justify is a big/heavy horse. The two-week turn-around is a concern for any horse in 2018 as they are not trained to come back that quickly. Has the speed to lead from the start, but the track condition dictating how several horses may ultimately run. He is the fastest horse but still has to get over the surface. Jockey has a history of pulling up any horse with a sign of trouble. See Shared Belief, Arrogate, and several others. Bottom Line If you like 50 cents on the dollar take it. But lots of questions and the muddy/sloppy track is a huge variable.
Bravazo
Has the pedigree to develop late and run “All Day” Relaunch in the pedigree should not hurt if the track is sloppy/muddy. Ran a wide trip in the Kentucky Derby and showed some grit in a couple of wins early in the season. I think he will be ridden hard all the way around and they are trying to cash a check in the race.
The Strategy
I see two options for this race. The first option is to concede the race to Justify and play straight exacta over Bravazo and Sporting Chance.
The second option which is low risk, high reward is to play the speed and potential for chaos. Betting Tenfold, Sporting Chance and Bravazo on the winning end with a more massive punch of Sporting Chance who has some “Muddied” up form! Sporting Chance is my stop selection with a fighters chance to be sent to the lead and get brave on the point in the muddy/sloppy surface.