2018 Louisiana Derby Preview

The Fairgrounds down in the Louisiana swamp is Gator bait for this week, Louisiana Derby.  Risen Star winner Bravazo reunites with Gary Stevens, meanwhile blinkers on for Noble Indy.  Place your bets.

Contenders:

Bravazo has run back to back game races, and this versatile son of Awesome Again has enough speed to take the lead, or sit back and make his move on the turn.  Gary Stevens returns for the injured Miguel Mena and recent works should have him fit and fresh from the rail.  Distance and running style put him in the mix from the opening bell and has faced classy horses.  Inside post may make him show speed from the opening bell and soften his stretch run this time.

Noble Indy draws just outside of Bravazo and adds the blinkers.  Maiden win was fast, and in the Risen Star, he received a much more passive ride.  I believe a send job is in the plan and he should be able to control the pace from flag fall to that’s all in this spot.  This big framed horse should have more in the tank for this race.

Givemeaminit did not run well in the Risen Star, and this was strange.  His best races have been from off the pace, and if he reverts to that running style, he could be motoring late.  Has some experience in stakes races and has faced good horses from this crop.  Mixed signals for the son of Star Guitar.

Retirement Fund did not like the slop in the Southwest and was between horses most of the way and pinned inside and outside of runner down the backstretch. His first two wins were on the engine, and his best chance may be to try and establish a top three position in the clear in this race. Expecting a big bounce back.

My Boy Jack relished the slop and went to the inside and waltzed away late in the Oaklawn unveiling.  Chased McKinzie to no avail and has run 8-lifetime races.  Not sure what the upside is, but the pedigree says nine furlongs should be no problem and is in stable form at this time.  Last race may have been the wedding at 8/1 – don’t go to the funeral.

Dark Templar chased Retirement Fund two races back and then came back and won an allowance race over Lone Sailor.  Son of Tapit was impressive at Churchill Downs last fall and seems to be slowly working into shape this spring.  Expecting his best effort and is worth including in some trifectas and superfectas in this spot.

 

Fair Odds

Bravazo 4/1

Noble Indy 5/2

Retirement Fund  12/1

Dark Templar 14/1

The Selection:

Noble Indy is the horse to beat and should sit a good trip.  Adds blinkers and 5/2 odds is fair in this spot.  Retirement Fund is the longshot who may be worth a play at 12/1.