A full field of 14 fillies for the Kentucky Oaks has assembled under the Twin Spires. The Derby receives all the attention, but many of the factors that are prominent in Derby handicapping apply to the ladies as well. Look for a filly who is peaking, has raced 2-3 times in 2018 and had the pedigree to get nine furlongs.
The 2018 Kentucky Oaks Field
Sassy Sienna
Has been very consistent in her career and finally broke through with a win in the Fantasy Stakes by a nose over Wonder Gadot. Ran an even fourth at Keeneland last fall in the Alcibiades and had experience running in eight stakes races. Longshot is flying under the radar and could make some noise in the lane. Gary Stevens returns on the mount, and he was able to finish in the Fantasy Stakes. Last four Brisnet speed figures are 84,86,88, and 85. She may have hit a wall in the high 80’s, and it usually takes a 95-99 Brisnet speed figure to win the Oaks.
Coach Rocks
Was knocking on the door in several maiden races and then knocked the door down with an eight-length win at Gulfstream. She followed that win with an upset trip victory in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. Long stamina building gallops and goes back to Churchill Downs where she trained a little last summer before debuting at Saratoga. Seems to be thriving in Kentucky with two substantial works at Churchill Downs since winning the Gulfstream Oaks. She will probably be an underlay in the betting as it is owned by a partnership who like to bet their horses in big races. Has a big shot to win on current form and last race was better than looks on paper.
Classy Act
Does her running on the front end and faded fast in Fairground Oaks and finished fourth. Classy Act was run down by Monomoy Girl in the Rachel Alexandra. Faces other speed pressure from Monomoy Girl and Blamed in this race. She could benefit from trying to slow down the pace or running fast early and setting fast fractions. If she decides to grind on the front end with other fillies, she will get tired before the turn. Best chance is to show speed, keep the favorites out wide into the first turn. If she can relax and not be a run-off, she could take this field a long way.
Chocolate Martini
The claim of the year on February 2nd when she was claimed for 25K and has posted back to back wins including the Fair Grounds Oaks. Looks overmatched in this spot, facing other speed and a broad group of closers. She also faces additional mid-pack speed pressure. Final work was fast and should run a good race, not sure her best fits with the top horses in this race.
Wonder Gadot
She has lost four straight races after winning the Demoiselle last fall in New York. With nine lifetime starts and three wins and eight in the money finishes. Has received troubled trips in three straight races and has some “dirtied” up form coming into this race. Positive jockey switch and enough speed to lay close and stick in the front end of the field. I’m expecting a strong performance.
Kelly’s Humor
Emerged into the Oaks field when the Pride of Sunland Park, Blamed was announced out of the race on Sunday. Has a few runs that fit with this field but overall a longshot. She has run in several stakes race and goes sprint to route and second start off the layoff.
Rayya
Ships in from Dubai and this filly is small in stature but did defeat the boys in UAE Derby while running second to Mendelssohn. Should be forwardly placed. Her big win in Dubai comes with a few caveats because she faced very little competition in that race. She also benefitted from a speed bias in the three-length victory. It overall seems like a tough ask shipping from Dubai to California to Kentucky in such a short time frame.
Heavenisminikki
She is a complete clown show. The horse has no chance, and the owner wants attention.
Take Charge Paula
She has been the victim of some strange rides. Stopping and starting and running wide in the last couple of races. Coach Rocks beat her on the finish line at Gulfstream after Take Charge Paula had opened up a couple of length lead. Should show speed and had an intense final workout at Palm Meadows. The consistent runner could maybe benefit from laying further back off the pace and trying to make one run. If she runs close to the speed, she will probably get burned out chasing Blamed and moving too soon against Monomoy Girl.
Midnight Bisou
She has dominated the West Coast Filly division with authoritative wins in the Santa Anita Oaks and the Santa Ysabel Stakes. Showed more speed early in her career and had been rating further back in the most recent races. Recent works are solid. Her speed figure seems a little low for the Santa Anita Oaks and I have a feeling she has not maxed out a top performance. All Systems Go for the daughter of Breeder’s Cup Sprint winner Midnight Lute. Comes in with no setbacks in 2018 and has slowly been brought along to stretch her speed and relax early in the race.
My Miss Lilly
Dominated the Gazelle Stakes with a well-timed moved from the half-mile pole to secure position and then go to the lead entering the stretch. Has tactical speed and the pedigree should be a positive for nine furlongs. She is getting right at the right time and had a troubled trip in the Busher Stakes. She could break through with a strong performance. Coming into this race on the upswing and a definite shot to take down the lilies. Jockey Joe Bravo should benefit from an excellent post position draw. Enough speed to keep a couple of contenders wide going into the first turn.
Patrona Margarita
Has been defeated by Monomoy Girl twice in most recent two outing losing by 13 and seven lengths with no real excuses. She is in form and may be able to pass horses late in the stretch. Race flow and race design do not point to any scenario where she can win the race.
Eskimo Kisses
Daughter of To Honor and Serve has improved dramatically since January 14th and comes in with a strong second in the Ashland Stakes with a long sustained run against the lone speed in that race in Monomoy Girl. She is looking for a speed duel, or fast fractions to allow her stretch kick to make an impact. Should love the nine furlongs and is a significant threat to win. Not a fan of the #13 post position but she is a closer who will most likely drop back early in the race. She is fit having raced several races in 2018.
Monomoy Girl
Is the morning line favorite and she has speed. Was sent early in the Ashland Stakes to secure an early lead and then drew off to victory. Was able to win from off the pace in the Rachel Alexandra after breaking slowly. A few negatives on the way she runs. She runs with her head high, which usually is not a good sign for routers when they get pressure early in the races. She also did not have much of a gallop out in the Rachel Alexandra. She faces other speed in the race and also has to use her speed to establish position and hold off a talented crew of closers. Amy’s Challenge not running in the race helped her chances tremendously. Will take a lot of money, is fit and if fractions are slow, she can win. Post Position #14 did not help the cause at all.
The Selection
With speed in the race and nine furlongs, a little farther than Monomoy Girl may want to run. I’m hoping for fast fractions or a contested pace to give Eskimo Kisses a chance to run them all down late. Wonder Gadot is the second choice. In Oaks-Derby Doubles. I would use Eskimo Kisses on the majority of tickets with Wonder Gadot, Coach Rocks and Midnight Bisou on the backup tickets.