Aqueduct plays host to the 2018 Gotham Stakes with some Derby trail veterans and several promising lightly raced horses entered. This year the Gotham is a one-turn mile with 85 Kentucky Derby points beings distributed with 50 to the winner.
Contenders:
Free Drop Billy comes in with six-lifetime races and a convincing win at Keeneland and a solid runner-up in the Hopeful Stakes. The Holy Bull was a strong effort and although a loss, that race may have been the best prep race run this spring regarding final time and race flow. Billy got even with Audible on the turn after showing enough speed to a moderate pace, but those two powerfully separated from the group and came home fast. Union Rags has been stamping his horses well, and the cutback to one mile should be sufficient for his move going into the turn. He will be tough to deny in this spot.
Enticed ran better than looked in the Holy Bull, he is just not a fast horse, more of a grinder type that needs a contentious pace or pace meltdown to win. Look for him to run evenly and make a run through the lane. He is one to look for in the Wood Memorial or the Bluegrass at nine furlongs.
Firenze Fire the Gotham is his “Derby” he probably will not get 10 furlongs in a speedy time, but with a win or second may have enough points to enter the starting gate in Louisville which seems to be the primary plan. The problem with Firenze is there is not much upside he has run seven times. Has executed well in most of them, but he is not a speedball and the pedigree is a significant concern for 9 and 10-furlong races. Nothing wrong with being a Grade 2 or Grade 3 horse, but he is not a Grade 1 three-year-old.
Beautiful Shot this horse is interesting showing speed and class in his three starts. Beat the highly regarded Mourinho in the Speak Easy Stakes and then chased Greyvitos around the track in the Bob Hope Stakes. Takes a slight class drop, but has to ship cross country. Comes in off the layoff and has 5 workouts pointing to this race. Has the class and tactical pace ability and draws inside post the leading contenders.
Fair Odds
Free Drop Billy 7/5
Firenze Fire 5/1
Enticed 4/1
Beautiful Shot 8/1
The Selection:
Free Drop Billy ran a powerful race in the Keeneland Breeders’ Futurity and his Holy Bull effort was better when looking at the final quarter and final sixteenth pace fractions. Enticed is capable of better and is the logical second choice.