The Oaklawn Park road to the Triple Crown concludes with the Grade One Arkansas Derby. The top three from the Rebel return along with a couple of newcomers including Tampa Bay Derby winner Quip and two for two Tenfold.
Contenders:
Tenfold has shown talent in both of his starts. The son of Hall of Famer and two-time horse of the year Curlin debuted on February 9th with a five-length win, and that included an enthusiastic gallop-out. In his second start, he showed grit defeating Navistar in a stretch-long duel pulling away late and pairing up debut Brisnet speed figure 92 with a 93. A classy female family adds class to this lightly raced colts resume. Victor Espinoza will be a first-time rider, and with the inside draw he may go to the lead and see how far he can take them. Talented horse, not sure he is ready for this type of field.
Dream Baby Dream is a closer in a race that has a slight chance of falling apart if Tenfold challenges Quip early and Magnum Moon engages the leaders before the turn. Dream Baby Dream will be rolling late, and his best chance of winning will be to pass them all down the stretch
Solomini he is who he is at this point. Speed figures are stagnant, and he has five-lifetime races. The most significant challenge for him is overcoming poor confirmation and a stride that is very inefficient. He is a grinder and gives 100%, but there is only so much you can do with the legs he has been genetically gifted.
Magnum Moon has received surprisingly little attention since his dominating Rebel victory a few weeks past. He has shown a fast development curve. Dominating a maiden race on January 13th. His Tampa Bay win was a learning experience showing push-button speed and winning with an inside-outside trip and winning in hand late without being pushed. In the Rebel, he showed speed out of the gate, raced three wide, engaged going into the turn when Sporting Chance on his outside and Title Ready is making a getaway move going into the corner. Usually, this is a hard trip for a horse making his third-lifetime start and stakes debut to win with authority. He finished strong and had a gallop-out with a lot of energy. Recent works have been steady, and video indicates he is holding his weight and shiny coat infers he has not regressed since his last win. Expecting another strong performance.
Quip has run three strong races in four races and had a rough trip in the Kentucky Jockey Club last fall. He has shown speed, and the ability to carry that speed through the turn and into the stretch. His Tampa Bay win was accomplished with slow fractions and then drew away late, but he was on the bridle out of the gate and in command going into the turn. He seemed to have a lot in the tank down the stretch and has an athletic build and speed to get a forward position out of the gate. His best chance may be to try and wire this field, but he is not a confirmed front-runner. Lots of ability and still some upside could easily see him hooking up with Magnum Moon on the turn.
Combatant has been the bridesmaid in last four starts. Has stakes experience and has faced several race shapes that did not favor his running style. Not sure he wants to go nine furlongs, and he needs to speed up front to get some pressure, so his mid-race move has some punch. Quality horse, can run from off the pace and has the speed to be competitive, but if the front-runners have no pressure, he may not be able to get a win.
Fair Odds
Magnum Moon – even
Quip – 4/1
Combatant 7-1
The Selection:
Quip and Tenfold offer lots of potentials, but Magnum Moon flashed unusual talent in his debut win and had dominated all three of his starts this year. Expecting him to win and remain undefeated.