The Midsummer Derby the Travers Stakes has drawn headliner American Pharoah and the best of the sophomore class in Frosted and Texas Red.
Pain the Canoe!
Upstart: Most likely will scratch, has some speed and figures to improve off the Travers. American Pharoah handled him at the Shore. Most likely to scratch and run in the Pennsylvania Derby.
American Pharoah: Winner of 8 straight races. Is the fastest horse in the race, the most consistent and has the most tactical speed and puts races away going into the turn. A strong combination of speed and stamina. Should be on the engine and tough to deny in this spot. Underrated horse by many is the real deal. Never runs a bad race and faster than most give him credit for. Let the Big Dog Eat!
Mid Ocean: Enters Grade 1 competition for the first time and most likely out-classed in this spot.
Texas Red: Ran a solid race in the Dwyer, came back with a good run in the Jim Dandy in a 4-horse field, outrunning Frosted for the money. Most likely 2nd favorite and may be over-bet. Not sure he wants 10 furlongs and with a faster pace may get much further back in this race than he did in Jim Dandy.
Frammento: is training lights out in recent weeks and runs his race every time. His race is usually good enough for 5th or 6th. Solid and consistent, just not a true Grade 1 horse against the top horses. At some point I would like to see him in a race when he can compete for a win.
Frosted: Clearly the 2nd most accomplished horse of this crop. Ran 4th in the Derby, 2nd in the Belmont, 2nd in the Jim Dandy and won the Grade 1 Wood Memorial. Grinder type will never win 3 in a row-, but on his best day with a 8 horse field and some pace can make some noise. Training well, should get the distance. Most likely 2nd place finisher. Starting to play Robin to Pharoah’s – Batman.
Keen Ice has one lifetime win. Last race looks better on paper. But Competitive Edge and Upstart made for a fast pace and Keen Ice picked up the pieces in a race that fell apart. He’s capable of getting 2nd in this spot and I like him better than Texas Red for 2nd place. But running style is not really a threat to win this race.
Tale of Verve is another deep closer who likes to close late. Not sure what his class level is and 10 furlongs may dull some of his closing kick. Prefer others for 2nd.
Smart Transition seems to be improving and has tactical speed. May be up near the leaders in this race and if the pace is slow should be able to hang around going into the turn. Very usable for the Superfecta.
The Choice:
The American Pharoah tour continues in 2015 with a stop in New York and the Big Guy should be ready for the challenge, too much speed and class for this group. But shipping twice in a month across the country could take its toll. Straight Exactas – American Pharoah over Frosted and Keen Ice.