The Foster is a Grade 1 “Win and You’re In” for the 2015 Breeders Cup at Keeneland. Hoppertunity and Lea are both Grade 1 winners in this year’s field.
The Skinny:
Commissioner has been consistent and enters the Foster off back to back Grade 3 races and now looks for a G1 win on his resume. Likes to run near the front end and ultimately the fractions will determine how well he does in this race. In good form and a chance at a small upset.
Lea is the class of the field with a Grade 1 win and placings in 2 other Grade 1 races in his career. Lifetime earnings are approaching 2 million dollars and ran a gutsy race in florida running closer to the pace in a race without a lot of speed, should sit 3rd or 4th and fits on class and speed.
Paganol is moving up tremendously in class to the Grade 1 level and best running has been on the front end in his last 2 victories. Faces other speed in this race and most likely he will show speed and fade late in the race.
Noble Bird entered form wise with some good speed figures, but his last race at Churchill the speed figure may be over-inflated. Best style has been on the front end and does not have enough break away speed to clear Commissioner and Lea. Will be hounded from the start and this is not a good spot race flow and fractions wise for him to pick up the victory.
Hoppertunity is 1 for 1 at Churchill Downs winning the Clark last fall. Owns tactical speed and has faced multiple G1 winners in Shared Belief and California Chrome. Mike Smith takes the mount and won with him last year. Likely 2nd favorite and big shot in this race.
Majestic Harbor goes back to dirt after a long distance turf race last out. Figures to do best running from behind and should get some pace to run at with this race. Current form is solid and does own a G1 victory. Like his chances to be 3rd or 4th and could be part of the trifecta at a price.
Cat Burglar has good form last year and is now 3rd off the layoff. Commissioner did beat him in last race at Baltimore and he did not get an aggressive ride in that race. Espinoza stays on him and does have some latent speed figures he could cycle back to with the right trip. Has never won a stakes race, but is 9 for 10 in the money.
The Choice:
Lea is the most likely winner 8/5 is fair odds. Hoppertunity the 2nd choice.
Suggested Wagers: Lea – over Hoppertunity and Majestic Harbor and Cat Burglar for exactas.