Shippers are invading Oaklawn Park for the 2nd leg of the Oaklawn 3-year-old series. Mr Z gifted the Smarty Jones to Far Right by drifting out late. Newcomers Bold Conquest and J S Bach raise the quality level of this race. Cool weather could be a factor.
The Skinny:
J S Bach ships in from Florida after a widening 8 length win in Maiden Special Weight last race. Has worked well his entire career and been pounded in both his career races at the window. Figures to be on the lead and battling with Mr Z at the 6 furlong mark. Rail post position is perfect for his running style and comes in fit off big maiden win.
Far Right picked up the win by default with a ground saving trip and running late in the Smarty Jones. Has improved since changing his running style in the Delta Jackpot and making one run from the back. Overall he is slow and not sure the extra distance helps him. Have a feeling he lays too far back and leaves himself with too much to do.
Private Prospect ran evenly in the Smarty Jones but faces a tougher field, best races have been near the pace but JS Bach threatens to be the speed of this race. Outclassed.
Kantune took the class drop in the last race and exploded for the big Maiden Special Weight win. Has faced some good horses and I feel the short Oaklawn stretch works to his advantage. Worth using in vertical wagers and does have a chance to win if he can sit the right trip. Took awhile to break the maiden but may be battle toughened against classy horses. Running style puts him into the mix on the turn.
Bayerd faces tougher horses and stretches out in distance. The distance will be a bigger issue and facing more horses on the front end. Expecting him to get passed by several horses in the lane.
The Truth or Else faced tougher competition last year running against Daredevil, Blofeld, Face the Music and Kamarius. Likes to run from off the pace, has faced off tracks, lone speed, small fields. His ideal race should be 8.5 furlongs to 9 and with strong pace. Only 3 works in January this looks like prep race for Rebel and Arkansas Derby.
Majestico has a sprint pedigree and has been doing his running from the back of the pack in recent races. Slower than many of the obvious contenders and not sure wants top horses at a 8.5 furlong distance. Has a win early/develop early pedigree and not sure if he has much improvement.
Bold Conquest had sharp juvenile form and tailed off in the freakish race by Carpe Diem at Keeneland. Working well for return with a series of slow works which are Steve Asmussen’s style. Slow 4 furlong work on Thursday should have him on edge. Should be fit and could be in the hunt. Not as sharp as the top contenders but more long-term upside. Pedigree is for late developer with strong distance influences in Curlin, and Distorted Humor.
Mr. Z is the obvious choice. Questions still linger on the performance late in the Smarty Jones. He somehow managed to turn a 5 length win into a 3 length loss. New jockey Nakatani pilots for the first time and the talent, pedigree and class are still strong enough to win the race. Running style should have him in position turning for home. One win in 9 starts is cause for pause.
Bold Animaux tries dirt for the first time after 5 turf races. Has 3 lifetime wins which is more than most of these. Outside post is a killer with his running style. Not enough speed to go for the lead and he will be left wide and running on new surface. Very much a longshot.
Fair Odds:
J S Bach 4/1
Mr. Z 7/2
Kantune 9/1
The Choice
J S Bach figures to be the speed of the race with Mr. Z and War Story both capable of making a mid race move to contention. Kantune offers some appeal as he may be toughened more than most MSW winners. J S Bach is the choice he has been hinting at above average potential and he should get first jump in this race. Mr. Z is the 2nd choice and next most logical winner.