Kentucky Oaks 2015
The 2015 run for the Lillies has a different shape from 2014 when Untapable was the clear division leader and went off at 3/5 before taking the Kentucky Oaks. This year the pace has a potential to be fast and contentious. The top contenders are vulnerable with a contentious pace.
The Skinny:
Condo Commando has an impressive resume but digging deeper into the numbers shows a variety of opinions on the daughter of Tiz Wonderful. Her best win was in the slop. She was the lone speed in most recent race. She also has a dominating win last fall in the Demoiselle. She is dressed up, facing better horses and a short price. Not a good wager.
I’m A Chatterbox is the deserving favorite with 3 straight wins in Louisiana which has been a successful path to the Kentucky Oaks over the past couple of years. The daughter of Munnings may be slightly distanced challenged at 9 furlongs with a contentious pace. Strong filly has a shot, but she faces more pace pressure and higher class of horses than most recent races. Can win this, but don’t take too short of a price.
Stellar Wind dominated the two west coast preps, visually winning in-hand with sweeping moves on the turn. Daughter of Curlin should like the distance and figures to be sitting on a top race with recent works. Big, strong filly has the right running style and galloped out strongly in both wins this year. Worth using on all tickets. Has the fastest speed rating in the race by some speed figures. Has run in 3 straight 7 horse fields and now faces a field of 14 – You like Apples – How About them Apples.
Include Betty has 2 wins on the dirt sandwiched with a turf race that was below par. She has a closer running style, dirt ability is very good. Consistent filly will be running late. Tough to back on win ticket but has some intrigue as a late running closer.
Oceanwave this is the race that Oceanwave has been waiting for. She gets a full field, a fast pace. 4th race in the form cycle and finished full of run on the gallop out in both the last 2 races. Strong gallops and she should like the 9 furlong distance. Very capable of running them all down at a big price. Using on all tickets.
Angela Renee flattened out in most recent race. Two prep campaign, but finished flat in the stretch in both races. Another who will finally get a fast pace and full field to show her best abilities. Many of the Oaks preps have lacked – pace and contentious fractions. Longshot, but has some past class that could put her in the mix.
Birdatthewire was dominating in most recent race in Florida. Finishing fast and looking fit on a very demanding surface. Distance should not be an issue and recent gallops have been strong. Visually very impressive and figures to run a strong race from off the pace. Most likely winner with a good trip. All systems go.
Puca has been consistent, not really sure what her running style is. Ran evenly in slow pace last race against Condo Commando. Leggy daughter of Big Brown needs to improve, but versatile running style points to off the pace effort. Post Position #14 didn’t help.
Lovely Marie big win in last race, setting the pace and drawing off to victory in the Ashland Stakes. Figures to be on the lead or contesting the pace. Improving at the right time and hauling around #175 pound trainer Larry Jones should get her fit.
Shook Up chased I’m a Chatterbox in last race and is improving at the right time. Should be fit and has the pedigree to get the 9 furlongs. Overall facing quality competition so can’t endorse in this spot. Contention runs deep.
Eskenformoney is a hard trying filly who has some class in this field and has the speed to ensure a good trip. Last race may have moved too soon against Birdatthewire. Look for her to lay back and make one move into the turn and figures to be very prominent at the end. Slightly overlooked using on about 10% of tickets.
Sarah Sis got the perfect set-up in the Honeybee and regressed in last race facing higher class of horse. Seems to be regressing and faces strongest field of career and going a distance that is not ideal for her.
Forever Unbridled adds jockey Mike Smith and recent long gallops have been good conditioning workouts. Proven pedigree for 8.5 furlongs and trainer has been known to have them ready for first week in May. Using on a few tickets and might get the dream trip in the speed tires under the Twin Spires.
Contenders – Fair Odds:
Birdatthewire 6/1
Oceanwave 10/1
Eskenformoney 14/1
Stellar Wind 5/1
Lovely Maria 8/1
In the Mix
I’m a Chatterbox
Forever Unbridled
Tosses:
Condo Commando – will get pressure and fade
Sarah Sis – will not like 9 furlongs
The Choice:
Birdatthewire has fired every race in her career. Comes off a visually impressive effort, sits the 9 furlongs and this big, robust filly should love the distance and get first run on the deep closers. Eskenformoney adds depth to the Florida group and should get the distance and may be coming up to a solid effort on a fast track.
Oaks Derby Double Horses:
Birdatthewire 45% of tickets
Oceanwave 10% of tickets
Eskenformoney 22% of tickets
Stellar Wind 13% of tickets
Forever Unbridled 5% of tickets
Lovely Maria 5%