New York kicks off the 2015 road for newly turned 3 years with the Jerome Stakes. El Kabeir comes in with a Stakes win and probable post-time favorite.
The Skinny:
Royal Burgh – Came from off the pace in a a Maiden race at Keeneland with a grinding win. Was never involved in the race in the Remsen, but has come back with 3 workouts and have a feeling his maiden win makes him competitive in this spot.
El Kabeir is making hay while the sun shines. Ridden aggressively at Churchill Downs in most recent start he set a quick pace, opened up on the turn and lasted by a head bob. Long term thinking turf, but the money is on the dirt this time of year. Good 6F work 2 back and final work was a solid 4 furlongs with a good gallop out – five furlongs in 1:00.92 and six furlongs in 1:13.03, has speed, tactical running style. Likely favorite. Aggressive ride paid off last race. Outside post may help as he can break well and sit where Calvin Borel places him early.
Ostrolenka is a another who ran from an outside post in the Remsen and didn’t have the speed to hang with the leaders. This guy needs the lead and will probably show more speed in this race. Son of Musket Man had 2 big wins and has the speed to hang with El Kabeir if he wants. The amount of pressure Ostrolenka applies could be the key to the race.
Now We are Free has multiple wins but would need to improve speed wise in a race like this, like the fact he has some grit and has faced winners so not a complete toss.
Ackeret has a grinding running style and run all day pedigree. Picked up diploma grinding out win with a long stretch drive at Belmont. Has raced well at Belmont, Laurel and Parx and with two wins in 3 starts does have multiple wins. Fits in this race and is one of the horses who has proven the ability to pass horses in the stretch.
Tencendor is a maiden entered against winners. George Weaver usually good at spotting horses, ran evenly in debut and can improve. but top 2 favorites look tough in this spot.
Mini Cosmo picked up a check in 3rd lifetime start and improved at the 1 mile distance. Both speed and pace figures look slow in this race.
General Bellamy showed marked improvement in 3rd lifetime start drawing off at 7/1 in a MSW at the Big A. Son of Bellamy Road has a distance pedigree and may be improving at the right time.
Nasa: Smarty Jones progeny won the Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes in last race. 7 furlongs has been his most effective distance so far. Sharp form fits at this level. Needs to stay close to the pace in this race facing more speed and class than he has in recent races. Seems sharp right now and has enough experience, not sure if his speed is at the level of El Kabeir.
Contenders Running Styles:
Early: – El Kabeir, Ostrolenka
Presser – Nasa
Sustained – Ackeret
Fair Value Odds:
El Kabeir 7/5
Ostrolenka 4/1
Royal Burgh 6/1
The Choice:
El Kabeir has remained sharp since his Churchill Downs score. I have him as a need to lead type and he can take some heat, he has had strong workouts and seems to be trying to win this race. He’s a legit miler, and fits in this spot as my top choice. Ostrolenka is my 2nd selection and if the track is kind to speed, should be up front and pressing the entire way.