The Malibu Stakes highlights the opening day card for Santa Anita. Speed and class converge at 7 furlongs. Shared Belief comes in as the heavyweight in 2014.
The Skinny:
Conquest Two Step has the right running style to win a race like the Malibu, with lots of speed signed up he should be able to settle off the pace and make one run coming into the stretch. Not sure he has the speed, but at 7 furlongs the ability to rate and close can come in handy.
Chitu is the proven sprinter. He stretched that speed in the spring coming in 2nd in the Lewis and winning the Sunland Derby. Picked up a healthy speed figure in the Damascus on Breeders Cup Friday drawing away down the stretch after setting sub 1:09 fractions. Looks like the speed in this race, but doesn’t need the lead, should be on the lead turning for home with Joel Rosario.
Indianapolis has obvious health issues. He has 4 career starts and 3 layoff lines and comes in off a 7 week layoff. Hard to seem him winning a race like this.
RPrettyboyfloyd finally broke his maiden and again is a come from behind sprinter who looks slow in a race like this.
Pimpernel drew away in allowance race last time. Has shown speed in all 8 career starts. Has distance limitations with a fast, contested pace hard to see him going 7 furlongs. His game is slow fractions uncontested.
Midnight Hawk has the class with 5 graded stakes attempts in the spring. Off the layoff threw in a clunker in the Damascus, but bounced back last race finishing 3rd at 6 furlongs on the synthetic surface. Look for him to come closing into hot fractions in this race.
Tamarando ran a dull race in the Native Diver and prefers synthetic surface, but does have some good races at 7 furlongs. Assuming lots of speed shakes out he will come closing late in this race.
Shared Belief is a horse you have to respect and is 4/5 on the morning line. I like this horse, he is fast and is a strong “power” sprinter, but with Chitu as the speed and Pimpernel he will have to have a solid trip to win a race like this. He is also a smaller build and so far hasn’t had to spring against top class sprinters at their game. He also is small and doesn’t carry a lot of weight. Think he is very vulnerable in this spot. Didn’t get much of a breather after Breeders Cup and hasn’t really had a freshening since he came off the layoff from the foot injury. Like him as a miler to 9 furlong horse. Part of the equation says Shared Belief is the best horse in the race. The non-conforming might think that it’s the wrong distance and the pace match-up doesn’t favor him.
Diamond Bachelor prefers sprinting to routing and is capable of big efforts, but also throws in some full efforts at times. He is intriguing in this spot for some reason and has fast workouts, wouldn’t totally dismiss him in the superfecta in this race.
The Choice:
Midnight Hawk should be able to sit 5-6 lengths off the pace set by Chitu and Pimpernel, Shared Belief will probably go early and have to put those horses away, this could set up late for a closer. Midnight Hawk, Chitu and Diamond Bachelor are my top 3 choices.
This is a race to stay with small tickets. Shared Belief is one of the few horses that is bet every race – so small tickets to beat him is the strategy to play in a race like this.