The Hollywood Futurity has long been a race with either great performances, or a raced filled with talented horses who went on to future big wins. This year the Futurity comes to Los Al with a 500,000 purse, Grade 1 status, but only 5 entrants.
The Skinny:
Bench Warrant has a sprinters pedigree on both sides. His debut win was impressive. Coming from behind with a burst of speed down the lane to take the victory. He came off the shelf in a tough NW of 2 and may have needed that race. Could improve and gets the inside post. Long term he has a sprinters pedigree, but in a 5 horse field, why not take a shot and see what you have.
No Problem gutted out a long stretch run to win the Bob Hope. He comes from the first crop of Munnings who has been stamping them straight out the of the Speighstown wheelhouse. So far Munning has been versatilesire and No Problem gives him a chance to pick up some Grade 1 type in his first crop. No Problem is another who has a strong sprinters pedigree on the female side. So far he has paid back his purchase price, is sharp and seems to be a stone cold runner. Ultimately he will be a sprinter/miler but he fits in this five horse field.
Dortmund is a man among boys through 2 starts. He towers over the competition on the track. He’s one bad dude, bigger, wider, longer and heavier than his competition. His pedigree doesn’t show much on the female side and Big Brown has not developed any major dirt horses in the United States. Dortmund ran fast in his debut win. In his 2nd win he took off the blinkers and won out of the 12 hole. So far he has not needed the lead. The pace could be slow in this race, or he may just show his speed from the start. This could be his coming out party on a big stage. Big favorite could go off at 3/5. Purchased in the spring for 140K a win and he is out on the purchase tag.
Mr. Z is a very nice horse and a win would give him strong consideration for the 2-year-old championship. H broke his maiden with a rough trip in his debut. In his 2nd start he was much the best in the Sanford. The Delta Jackpot was a head bob loss. His Keeneland Futurity was a solid effort against Carpe Diem who absolutely freaked that day. Mr Z, comes in good form, can get the distance and should be no worse than 2nd choice.
Firing Line has shown talent in both his career races. Finishing strongly in his debut race and then winning in a gallop in his 2nd start. He needs a full field to do his best running and will not get that in his race. Runner has some upside and a case could be made for him with a win chance.
The Selection: This race is all about Dortmund, win or lose. Dortmund has been dominant in both races, has a string of bullet workouts. Has galloped out well in both his starts, and just looks like 8.5 furlongs will not be an issue. Mr. Z is the obvious 2nd choice. Races with 5 horse fields can get tricky and a big horse like Dortmund needs to stay out of trouble and I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t grab the lead after 4 furlongs. Mr. Z also has some speed and a theft job by Mike Smith is not of out of question. Dortmund wins and he goes to the top of the standings among the juvenile division.