Pool 2 wagers for the 2014 Kentucky Derby open this Thursday and the windows will remain open through Saturday before the Robert Lewis Stakes is run. Below is a Horse an analysis of the 23 entries and the field.
Bobby’s Kitten was listed in pool 1 of the futures. Bobby is very intriguing, because he is taking the “unconventional” route to the derby, but his route may end up being the path of least resistance. Bobby’s Kitten set fast fractions when last seen at Santa Anita losing late to closing Europeans after setting fast fractions and trying to put the race away going into the turn. The plan now calls for one turf race, then the Bluegrass Stakes to make the Derby field. Paddy O’ Prado and Dullahan have used this route in the past couple of years and Animal Kingdom used the Synthetic to Derby route. Bobby has the distance pedigree with Kitten’s Joy on top. The Forestry on the mare side adds speed and is the same Broodmare sire as Shackleford. This horse could be 40/1 as he has been on the sidelines, but recent works indicate he is coming back into form. Recent fitness, proven class and a clearly stated goal are more than most of these horses have.
Cairo Prince the morning line favorite for pool 2. The horse who has gone favored in pool (2) formerly 1 never wins the derby. It’s right up there with the Juvenile Jinx, the Curse of Apollo and the Breeders Cup Jinx of eliminating horses. Fast, Fit and Fresh, will rest until later, might get the same odds in Pool 3 as pool 2, so no reason to bet into a “blind” pool. Cairo has proven his class in several races and speed figures fit with the rest of this class. Expect odds to be closer to 15/1, but with the Derby favorite in recent year’s between 4-1 and 5/1 – not a lot of value. The enticing play may be to find a couple of exactas and key over a couple of potential closers, looking for a “signer”.
California Chrome is very interesting – if the Pool is based on merit then CC belongs in the top 23. His last two races have been visually impressive and the speed figures have come back strong to confirm the “eyeball” test. His pedigree says sprinter/miler at best, but he keeps on winning and will get his shot in the San Felipe to make the big dance. The knock is that he will not attract a lot of wagering support. Will probably finish higher than 100/1 odds. If you like him play a straight exacta over the field and go for the money! On the other hand, I can’t imagine a Bloodhorse Derby Recap Issue with 20 pages of articles on Lucky Pulpit and Not For Love pedigree talk.
Candy Boy when last seen made a huge move in the Cash Call Futurity before being swallowed and spit out by the future Juvenile champion Shared Belief. Candy Boy’s move was huge – live and on the replays just as impressive as he accelerated while running wide and making a long sustained move from the half mile pole until mid stretch. A move like this by a Juvenile usually indicates above average potential. Has Hall of Fame Jockey in the saddle and solid Juvenile foundation with 5 lifetime starts. I like it even more when he was passed by Shared Belief he stayed on and ran through the finish line. Pedigree to get the distance and a dominating maiden win add to the intrigue. Odds should be right and many things to like including a 5 race “old school” campaign as a juvenile.
Commissioner this horse was listed in pool 1 and the connections will guarantee some support in pool two. Next scheduled to run in the F’ountain of Youth and face Conquest Titan, Mexicoma, Top Billing and more. Betting on Commissioner in pool 2 is quite a gamble. The upside is he wins the Fountain of Youth and becomes the favorite for the Florida Derby, the downside is that of the top 5 horses listed in pool 2, something has too give they can’t 5 horse dead heat. He will be coming off a 60 day layoff in the FOY and the speed figures are slower than everyone else. The pedigree is superb. A. P Indy with a touch of Touch Gold looks good on paper and this horse has a nice disposition and really relaxes in his races. Some things to like, but he has not impressed me with long slow tedious races.
Conquest Titan’s switch from a front runner to “deep closer” is reminiscent of Gulch from a few year’s back. Gulch was a precocious classy 2 year old, who had distance limitations. They changed his running style and he was able to compete in long distance races like the Derby and Preakness, but ultimately could not win G1 races as a closer. Later he won the Breeders’s Cup Sprint. Titan impressed with wide run in Fountain of Youth, but the track may have benefitted closers that day and especially horses off the rail, runs in the Fountain of Youth, thinking his connections will keep the price reasonable in pool (2) but value may still be had if you try wading into the water in pool 3. Has been in training for well over a year and that will catch up to him at some point.
Havana is for people who like to pick a horse, one horse and ride it all the way to the first Saturday in May. Speedy Juvenile form. Developed quickly as a 2- year old. The plan is to try a 2-start campaign and come in with a fresh horse for the Derby. This usually never works! Basically it gets you to the Derby but he would have nothing left for the Preakness if he were to win the Derby. Looks like a sprinter, runs like a sprinter, built like a sprinter, has quick stride, all things you don’ want in a derby scramble. I’m also thinking Dunkirk’s don’t fall too far from the trees (Unbridled’s Song). Not sure the value is here, he is not running until Swale and that is 7 furlongs, even if he wins that, he will still be good odds. By that time, the FOY winner, the Risen Star and the Gotham will have been run. People will be betting on those horse. If you like him wait until Pool 3 before putting on the bathing suit and diving in.
Honor Code has yet to hit the work tab and that is not a good sign. If he does hit the the work tab in the next few days he will not race until the Gotham at the earliest, which means you could play him in Pool 3 and still receive about the same odds. The only advantage to playing him in Pool 2 would be if everyone abandons ship and he goes up to 20/1 and you truly believe he is going to get fit enough to run. His juvenile form was good, not great. He won in the slop, lost to Havana with no real excuse besides running too late down the stretch. He won the Remsen by a nose with strange fractions and Cairo Prince was giving him 6 pounds in that race. I don’t think he has done enough to separate himself at anything under 20-1 odds.
Indianapolis has started his career with back back wins sprinting and his next scheduled race is the 7 furlong San Vincente. The pedigree has route potential with stamina influences on both sides. Starting his career with 3 straight sprints is unusual this day in age, but the raw talent is on display. Has a bad paddle with his front left leg and the leg hits hard when he lands, Because of that, I’m not anticipating a long career. Not for me.
Intense Holiday is 50/1 morning line and may go off at 100/1. The upside may be limited to this son of Harlan’s Holiday who has lost5 of 6 lifetime races and 3 races by multiple lengths to Cairo Prince. His speed figures have not progressed and with 6 lifetime starts has already raced too many times to get the big jump in figures that many do in February. Still eligible for a NW of 2. No appeal in win or exactas from this view. The pool only gets deeper as we get later in February, he’s a grinder, has not breakaway speed and Cairo Prince has left him multiple times in the rear-view mirror. Too many races, not enough wins and no real potential to improve. Real odds to win the Derby is about 200/1.
Kristo has been working out with a regular pattern since the loss on January 11th in the Sham Stakes to Midnight Hawk. With 3 races as a juvenile and one in early January he has a juvenile foundation that should set him up for a strong run in the San Felipe. Odds may be of value in pool 3 with 2 more weeks of workouts. Will be one of the longer shots in pool Two and the path out West is light right now. Currently Kristo is one of only 5 or 6 legit West Coast contenders, so he does offer appeal at a high price. Distorted Humor as a sire has had many winners over the Churchill surface. Has some limitations but appeals more to me on a class and running style possibility.
Matterhorn is a son of Tapit who broke his maiden at 14/1 at Aqueduct. He was immediately sent to the sidelines and resumed training on January 19th. He is a half brother to Title Contender who was on the Derby trail last year, but ultimately has distance issues beyond 8.5 furlongs. His maiden win was impressive defeating Harpoon and Tonalist. Slow back to the work tab, but has not worked out several times. Will have to find allowance race and keep him apart from several other promising Non Winners of 1. By waiting until January to find that 2nd win, it gets tough not enough races to go around for all the contenders.
Midnight Hawk will run on Saturday after the pools have closed in Pool 2. Midnight Hawk is the probably favorite for the Robert Lewis but will face stiff competition. Not sold on this son of Midnight Lute out of the Wolf Power mare. Lots of speed influences on both side of the pedigree and the female family is light in the immediate pedigree. When last seen he won the 4 horse Sham Stakes by defeating Kristo in basically a match race. His final quarter was slow in the Sham and he was bobbing and weaving in mid-stretch. Has recorded 3 work-outs post Sham Stakes. I’m not expecting him to win the Lewis Stakes and I don’t think he gets better as the distances increase. No Value and distance issues are a problem.
Noble Moon is back galloping after taking three weeks off. Noble Moon was included in Pool 1 of the futures and recorded a victory in January 4th in the Jerome Stakes. The competition was light that day, but his runner-up effort against Cairo Prince in the Nashua proved he can come off the pace. If all goes well he will work out 3 times before the Gotham. With the recent inactivity his odds may drift up closer to 50/1, has the pedigree to route and has speed figures that are competitive. I may throw him in a few bets in the exactas.
Rise Up dominated the Delta Jackpot with a six length victory. His Jean Laffitte Victory was decisive and he closed the year with victories in 4 of 5 races by large margins. He already has 6 races, so a 2-start campaign makes sense with this horse. Pedigree is on the light side and very injury prone with Rockport Harbor and Unbridled’s Song on the male side. He was really good as a 2-year old but steps up in class and proved in back to back victories that he’s better on the front end, controlling the pace. The pace will pick up in the next couple of months and I don’t see him improving. Has a few work on the tab and pointing for the Risen Star. Speedy pedigree, need to lead running style are negatives. Price will be high for those who believe.
Samraat is a speedy New York Bred who is now undefeated after a game win over Uncle Sigh in the Wither’s Stakes. Confirmed front-runner and has proven that he as some grit in the last couple of races. Speed Figures not giving him full credit he has been resolute in all 4 victories and could be worth a few bucks if you truly believe in him. This undefeated horse is probably not getting enough credit, so if you like his races – go to the window. Next race will be at end of March in either Florida Derby or Louisiana Derby or possibly the Wood Memorial.
Shared Belief has not had a work since January 3rd. He has been galloping, but no works as of Feb. 4th. He was in great shape before going to the bench with 3 races in less than 2 months. Was exceptional in three races on “artificial” surface last fall. Watching workouts and his stride in race replays, I don’t see any reason to question his form on dirt. He is also a small horse so should not take long to get back in shape. Has uncanny calmness and remains cool in all race situations. He was the deserving Juvenile Champion and was the real deal as a 2 year-old. Can he get back on the trail in time is the only question that remains. He is not a “futures” type bet, will be low odds, and has too many question marks on the fitness side to play with any gusto. If he does run in March it will be the San Felipe in March so Pool 3 would be the same price. No advantage to play in Pool 2 and a sucker’s bet if he is not working in the next week.
Strong Mandate has enough “dirty” running lines to keep a lot of attention off him. The upside is that Tiznow’s traditionally develop late and the classy pedigree inherited from the female side in Clear Mandate and Deputy Minister, indicates this colt may have room to improve. His debut was 5.5 furlongs at Saratoga and D. Wayne Lukas is notorious for giving many of his First Time Starters a race before sending them in start #2. Strong Mandate won at the Spa by 4 lengths and his 9 length tour de force in the Hopeful came on the back end of strong opening fractions. His Breeder’s Cup loss was a strong effort. He ran in the middle of the card as the track was changing and they were pouring loads of water onto the surface to slow the surface down. His 45 and 1 and 1:09 and 1 splits were fast for that surface and was pressed every step of the way from the 13 hole in that race by Havana. He has been working out for well over a month, with some strong workouts emphasizing speed and stamina. 30/1 is a fair price for a horse with recent works and a 3 start campaign on the horizon to get him to the Twin Spires. Worth using as a win bet or exactas both top and bottom at a fair price of 20/1 or higher.
Tapiture took 4 starts to put it all together and did so in his 4th lifetime race at Churchill Downs. Many Tapit’s have the similar running lines, nibble and then explode for a big maiden win. Harpoon is a recent example. Tapiture does have some excusable running lines. In his debut race he ran into Strong Mandate. He ran 2nd as a maiden in the Iroquois Stakes. Was pressed into a speed duel in start number 3 before surrendering late in the stretch. This is a homebred all the way with Tapit as the sire and longtime Winchell mare Free Spin out of Olympio another stable runner from past year’s back trained by Ron McAnally. Recent workouts have been stamina building with back to back six furlong works at the end of January. Steve Asmussen has not won a derby, but has won many other races. Pointing to the Southwest. Pool 2 could be the time to get “down” on him with some money.
Tonalist an intriguing addition to Pool 1. His maiden victory was solid and he did so by covering extra ground and running wide down the backstretch. Down the lane it took him awhile to shift gears but pulled away late and looked in command late with a strong gallop out. Recent work confirms fitness and is scheduled to run again soon. Distance pedigree with Pleasant Colony mare and ran in quality race as juvenile running 4th to Matterhorn and Harpoon in career debut. 50/1 morning line will be the longest of the Tapits and may offer the most value.
Top Billing is the “media” darling after his recent Allowance win. The win was accomplished on a track that may have been anti-rail. He ran well while running wide and has distance influences on both sides of the pedigree. He will be bet hard in Pool two and I expect him to go favored in pool 2. But he has no Derby “points” and has yet to face Stakes company and has been in training the entire month of November, December and January. Can he hold his form through May? No value and short price. Not for the sophisticated player who is looking for a price.
Uncle Sigh will float upwards from his 50/1 morning line and may be worth a shot at those odds. Sammy and him are pretty much event and are being discredited a little for their strong race. Still has room to improve and has already run 3 races that compete with most contenders. Pedigree leans towards miler type of pedigree and has yet to show he can alter running style to be more effective at longer distances.
Vicar’s In Trouble returned to the track for his first workout since the daylight LeComte score a couple of weeks back. Speedy son of Into Mischief has the speed figures to compete with many of the horses in Pool 1 at a higher price. The downside is that he may have peaked early with back to back improvements in last two races. Next race is Risen Star and they are planning 3 prep campaign. Same owner as Bobby’s Kitten, this horse will take a 3 start dirt road to Lousiville. Still questions to be answered about distance. Has he peaked? Was his last big victory because of the slow pace? The positive are that he seems to be healthy, has positive form and speed figures to compete. I think the price will be similar in Pool 3 and will pass on him in Pool 2, allowing me to sort out some of the other contenders on distance and race flow variables.
Field is still a very viable option at 7/5. Strong contenders include: Almost Famous, Bond Holder, Commanding Curve, Cool Samurai, Diamond Bachelor, Exit Stage Left, General A Rod, Gold Hawk, Mosler and several others with recent maiden victories. Betting the Field in Pool 2 does not have a lot of “star” power, but cashing tickets is always better than a “Kick in the Head”. If the price drifts to 8/5 or 9/5 I may be diving into the Pool on the Field.